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DC Field | Value | Language |
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dc.contributor.author | Alles, L. A | - |
dc.date.accessioned | 2022-01-18T04:41:20Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2022-01-18T04:41:20Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 1995-10 | - |
dc.identifier.issn | 1467-8462 | - |
dc.identifier.uri | http://localhost:80/handle/123456789/685 | - |
dc.description.abstract | This study examines the empirical relation between the yield spread of the term structure of interest rates and future economic activity in Australia. Results indicate that the term spread has signifcant power to predict real GDP growth but not nominal GDP growth. The term spread has more power in forecasting cumulative future growth than marginal growth in periods ahead. Around one-third of the variance of two year GDP growth can be explained by the term structure one to two quarters ahead. Explanatory power begins to decline beyond two to three years into the future whatever the combination of the long and short term yields used to measure the spread. The term spread has more explanatory power than the most widely used leading index for forecasting economic activity when forecasting cumulative GDP growth beyond two quarters | en_US |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Blackwell Publishing Ltd | en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries | Australian Economic Review;Vol 28 Issue 4 Pages 71-85 | - |
dc.subject | Australian Term Structure | en_US |
dc.subject | Predictor | en_US |
dc.subject | Real Economic Activity | en_US |
dc.title | The Australian term structure as a predictor of real economic activity | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |
dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00905.x | en_US |
Appears in Collections: | Research Papers - SLIIT Staff Publications |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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Australian Economic Review - October 1995 - Alles - The Australian Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity.pdf Until 2050-12-31 | 985.43 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open Request a copy |
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