Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://rda.sliit.lk/handle/123456789/685
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dc.contributor.authorAlles, L. A-
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-18T04:41:20Z-
dc.date.available2022-01-18T04:41:20Z-
dc.date.issued1995-10-
dc.identifier.issn1467-8462-
dc.identifier.urihttp://localhost:80/handle/123456789/685-
dc.description.abstractThis study examines the empirical relation between the yield spread of the term structure of interest rates and future economic activity in Australia. Results indicate that the term spread has signifcant power to predict real GDP growth but not nominal GDP growth. The term spread has more power in forecasting cumulative future growth than marginal growth in periods ahead. Around one-third of the variance of two year GDP growth can be explained by the term structure one to two quarters ahead. Explanatory power begins to decline beyond two to three years into the future whatever the combination of the long and short term yields used to measure the spread. The term spread has more explanatory power than the most widely used leading index for forecasting economic activity when forecasting cumulative GDP growth beyond two quartersen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherBlackwell Publishing Ltden_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesAustralian Economic Review;Vol 28 Issue 4 Pages 71-85-
dc.subjectAustralian Term Structureen_US
dc.subjectPredictoren_US
dc.subjectReal Economic Activityen_US
dc.titleThe Australian term structure as a predictor of real economic activityen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8462.1995.tb00905.xen_US
Appears in Collections:Research Papers - SLIIT Staff Publications



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