Browsing by Author "Madurawala, R"

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Economic Uncertainty as a Sustainability Risk: Cross-Income Directional Evidence From 135 Countries
(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-06-15) Navamohan, P; Gamage, D; Hansika, S; Madurawala, R; Jayathilaka, R; Weerathunga, W
This paper examines the direction of causality and the relationship between economic uncertainty, suicide rates, unemployment, economic growth, and trade openness across different income levels. By situating these relationships within a sustainability framework, the study conceptualises economic uncertainty as a systemic risk affecting social stability, labour markets, and long-term development trajectories. The analysis investigates 135 countries from 2000 to 2022, employing Granger causality and Multiple Linear Regression, with robustness tests using varying lag lengths to assess the reliability of the results. The findings reveal that economic uncertainty acts as a cross-dimensional sustainability stressor influencing socioeconomic systems across income strata, confirming prior evidence while extending it through Granger-causal analysis. Our findings show that in low-income countries economic uncertainty and unemployment rates have a bidirectional relationship. In lower-middle-income countries, suicide rates and trade openness affect economic uncertainty, while in upper-middle-income countries, suicide rates, economic growth, and trade openness affect economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that economic uncertainty can be mitigated through improvements in mental healthcare services, the promotion of free trade agreements, advancements in education and technology, and fostering economic diversification. Recommendations for policymakers tailored to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals are provided in this study to mitigate uncertainty risks on sustainability. These findings contribute to sustainability science by demonstrating how uncertainty functions as a structural constraint on inclusive and resilient development pathways.
Open Access
Economic uncertainty: a worldwide concern, a causal and cointegrating analysis among high uncertainty countries
(nature.COM, 2025-08-30) Hansika, S; Navamohan, P.; Gamage, D; Madurawala, R; Jayathilaka, R
In the modern world, exploring economic uncertainty and the unpredictability in economic conditions is crucial to determine its impact on day-to-day society. However, existing literature has examined this relationship in a generalised manner, often without focusing on the bi-directional effects among these variables. This study explores the causal and cointegrating interrelationships among economic uncertainty and suicide rates, unemployment rates, economic growth, and trade openness across 30 high uncertainty countries utilising Granger causality test and Cointegration test. Unlike existing studies, which focus on a certain country or region, the current findings disclose bi-directional causation between the measured variables, particularly in Kenya, Finland, Portugal, Latvia, Peru, Haiti, Mexico, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic. The cointegration tests show that while uncertainty reduces economic growth and trade openness in the long run, in line with contemporary literature, uncertainty also reduces suicide rates and unemployment rates in the long term. By analysing the countries with the highest economic uncertainty, this study aims to provide country-specific policies in line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) developed by United Nations (UN) to navigate the bi-directional effects among economic uncertainty and the linked variables.
Open Access
Global economic uncertainty shocks and macroeconomic dynamics before and after COVID-19: Evidence from Africa and the Americas
(Elsevier Inc., 2026-04-03) Madurawala, R; Navamohan, P; Gamage, D; Hansika, S; Jayathilaka, R
Global economic uncertainty has become a central driver of macroeconomic instability, particularly during large-scale crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines how global uncertainty shocks affect key macroeconomic variables, particularly suicide rates, economic growth, unemployment, and trade openness across 62 countries in Africa, South America, and North America over the period of 2004–2023 as the countries in these regions exhibit the highest uncertainty post-pandemic. Utilising the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, the analysis distinguishes between pre- and post-pandemic uncertainty-socioeconomic dynamics to assess the bidirectional and cointegrating relationships across regions. The study employs Multiple Linear Regression to capture short-term macroeconomic responses and panel and country-level cointegration techniques to identify long-run relationships between economic uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Global uncertainty is proxied using the World Uncertainty Index, which captures broad policy, geopolitical, and crisis-related uncertainty affecting expectations and real economic activity. Unlike, existing studies which reveal insights in a particular region or country, the current findings uncover bi-directional relationships in 21 countries post-pandemic, with notable relationships in Algeria, Botswana, Gabon, Guinea, Madagascar, Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Bolivia, Paraguay. Moreover, long-run cointegration between uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators strengthens in the post-COVID-19 period, particularly in countries of Africa and North America. By analysing countries in the highest uncertainty regions the study contributes to the international macroeconomics literature by providing new evidence on how global uncertainty shocks reshape macroeconomic dynamics across regions with heterogeneous economic structures, offering important implications for macroeconomic stabilisation in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.