SLIIT Business School Scopus2
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Publication Embargo Focus on Middle East and Central Asia: rationale of IMF assistance seeking(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026-03) Wisenthige, K; Pathiranage, H. S.K; Jayathilaka, RThis study delves into the rationale behind the tendency of nations in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) to seek aid from the IMF. The IMF supports global financial stability, aiming to foster economic growth and prosperity across its member countries by promoting policies that encourage monetary cooperation and financial resilience. The study employs a conditional fixed-effects logit model, the analysis spans 22 years of data from twenty-five MECA countries to identify the factors driving these nations to seek IMF assistance. It focuses on six determinants: Current Account Balance (CAB), Inflation (INF), Corruption (CORR), General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), and Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG). The fixed-effects logit shows that slower GDP growth raises the odds of an IMF programme, while short-run changes in corruption control and public debt ratios are not significant once country and year effects are absorbed. Inflation is weakly positive; the current account balance is still insignificant. A post-GFC and an income-group robustness check confirm the pattern. Furthermore, the study identifies Lebanon, a lower-middle-income country, as a leading example of seeking IMF assistance during the study period. Overall, this research highlights the importance of policymakers understanding the dynamics and rankings within the MECA region to effectively address economic challenges, provide financial support, and foster a more sustainable economic structure.Publication Open Access Achieving zero hunger: A global policy lens on food security drivers and income group disparities(Elsevier B.V., 2026-03) Pulle, N; Sampath, P; Perera, S; Wijayaweera, D; Jayathilaka, RMany countries struggle to meet their daily dietary requirements despite numerous attempts to address the existing demand. Consequently, this study collectively analyses the impact of urbanisation, renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions, population growth, gross domestic product per capita and agricultural land on food production relying on Sen's Entitlement Theory, thus providing insights to resolve the long-standing issue of food insecurity, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The study utilises a stepwise panel ordered Probit model on 146 countries, for the years 1993 to 2023. It further categorises the food production index into three categories of food security as; low, moderate and high, thereby enabling discussion of the likelihood of a country falling into one of the aforementioned food security categories over the years. Urbanisation, agricultural land, and the dummy variables introduced to represent the income groups have been identified to have a significant and favourable relationship with the food production index. In contrast, the greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy variables have a significantly inverse impact on the food production index. This makes a unique contribution to the existing body of literature, especially by comparing odds over the years, across different food secure categories, countries, and their specific income levels. This study enables policymakers to gain a comprehensive historical perspective on each case. This study further promotes the Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting areas where these goals have been negatively impacted. Additionally, the study discusses optimised investment allocations, agricultural research and development, agricultural technology, climate resilient farming, and sustainable urbanisation planning as solutions for extreme cases.Publication Open Access Dynamic linkages between chicken meat production, consumption, income and trade: Evidence from Wavelet coherence and Granger causality in Asia(Elsevier Inc., 2026) Silva, Y; Susan, H; Perera, N; Mendis, K; Jayathilaka, R; Dabare, UThe poultry industry has become one of the fastest-growing agricultural sectors in Asia, driven by rising incomes, and shifting food preferences. Therefore, this study aims to examine the relationship between chicken meat production and key determinants, including chicken meat consumption, gross domestic product, and trade openness, over 30 years (1993-2022) across 28 Asian countries. This study's foundation was based on the theories of consumer demand and international trade. Wavelet coherence and Granger causality analysis were utilised to identify the direction of causality of the variables. The Wavelet results reveal that chicken consumption and GDP become most significant with the production in the Asian continent, while Granger results reveal that most Asian countries showed unidirectional causal flows from trade openness to chicken meat production and from chicken meat production to gross domestic product and consumption. Furthermore, this study provides novel insights that inform policy considerations for policymakers, international and domestic organisations, and governments, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations.Publication Open Access Global economic uncertainty shocks and macroeconomic dynamics before and after COVID-19: Evidence from Africa and the Americas(Elsevier Inc., 2026-04-03) Madurawala, R; Navamohan, P; Gamage, D; Hansika, S; Jayathilaka, RGlobal economic uncertainty has become a central driver of macroeconomic instability, particularly during large-scale crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines how global uncertainty shocks affect key macroeconomic variables, particularly suicide rates, economic growth, unemployment, and trade openness across 62 countries in Africa, South America, and North America over the period of 2004–2023 as the countries in these regions exhibit the highest uncertainty post-pandemic. Utilising the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, the analysis distinguishes between pre- and post-pandemic uncertainty-socioeconomic dynamics to assess the bidirectional and cointegrating relationships across regions. The study employs Multiple Linear Regression to capture short-term macroeconomic responses and panel and country-level cointegration techniques to identify long-run relationships between economic uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Global uncertainty is proxied using the World Uncertainty Index, which captures broad policy, geopolitical, and crisis-related uncertainty affecting expectations and real economic activity. Unlike, existing studies which reveal insights in a particular region or country, the current findings uncover bi-directional relationships in 21 countries post-pandemic, with notable relationships in Algeria, Botswana, Gabon, Guinea, Madagascar, Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Bolivia, Paraguay. Moreover, long-run cointegration between uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators strengthens in the post-COVID-19 period, particularly in countries of Africa and North America. By analysing countries in the highest uncertainty regions the study contributes to the international macroeconomics literature by providing new evidence on how global uncertainty shocks reshape macroeconomic dynamics across regions with heterogeneous economic structures, offering important implications for macroeconomic stabilisation in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.Publication Open Access Economic and environmental factors influencing beef production in high-income countries: Panel evidence(Elsevier B.V., 2026-05-06) Susan, H; Mendis, K; Perera, N; Silva, Y; Jayathilaka, RAs the global population grows, dietary patterns are shifting towards protein-rich foods, with beef production playing a critical role in balancing food security, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. Among income groups, high-income countries exhibit relatively stable, yet elevated levels of beef production compared to others, warranting focused investigation. This study evaluates the causal effects of beef consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, gross domestic product, and trade openness on beef production across 42 high-income countries from 1993 to 2022. A panel regression model with country-specific fixed effects is employed to control for unobserved heterogeneity, as supported by panel specification tests. Additionally, a simple moving average method is used to forecast short-term trends in beef production for 2023–2026. The findings reveal that there is no significant evidence to claim that there is an effect of beef consumption and gross domestic product on beef production. In contrast, trade openness negatively influences production, while greenhouse gas emissions exhibit a positive effect. Forecast results indicate increasing beef production in countries such as Uruguay, New Zealand, Ireland, Australia, Canada, and the United States. The study offers policy-relevant insights for governments and international organisations in aligning livestock production strategies with Sustainable Development Goals.Publication Embargo Economic and Environmental Drivers of Carbon Emissions in Asia: Granger Causality Insights From Foreign Investment, Inflation, and Ecological Footprint(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026) Nizar, S; Natkunarasa, A; Divyanjali, H; Jayathilaka, RRising carbon emissions cause critical challenges to sustainable development, particularly in Asia which accounts for a substan-tial share of global emissions. The study investigates the short-run causal relationships between foreign direct investment, infla-tion, ecological footprint, and carbon emissions across 27 Asian countries (final analytical sample) over the period 2000–2023.Utilizing country-specific VAR-based Granger causality analysis, the study captures heterogeneous sustainability economic in-teractions without imposing uniform panel assumptions. The results reveal diverse unidirectional and bidirectional causalitypatterns, highlighting how macroeconomic pressures and environmental constraints jointly shape emission outcomes. Thesefindings underscore the importance of sustainable investment, energy price management, and institutional capacity in sup-porting sustainable communities and enhancing knowledge-driven sustainability transitions. From a managerial and policyperspective, the results provide actionable insights aligning with investment decisions, macroeconomic management, and envi-ronmental governance with the sustainable development goals, particularly SDG 13 (climate action), while recognizing country-specific development pathways.Publication Embargo Socio-economic and health drivers of suicide: A global analysis across income groups(Routledge, 2026-03-27) Kankanam Pathiranage, H.S; Kothalawala, C; Jayathilaka, RSuicide is a critical global public health challenge, with its socio-economic and health determinants varying significantly across contexts. This study provides the first comprehensive analysis of income-group-specific drivers of suicide, leveraging data from 129 countries over two decades. Using panel regression models to capture cross-country variations and temporal trends, the study identifies mental health disorders as the most significant global contributor, while unemployment universally elevates suicide risk. Alcohol consumption exhibits income-specific patterns, with wine increasing suicide rates in high-income nations and spirits in upper-middle-income settings. In low-income countries, HIV/AIDS prevalence significantly heightens vulnerability. These findings underscore the urgent need for targeted interventions, including expanding access to mental health care as part of universal health coverage, strengthening economic safety nets to mitigate the psychological impacts of unemployment, and implementing tailored alcohol regulation policies. By addressing these global and income-group-specific vulnerabilities, this study offers actionable insights to guide transformative policies and accelerate progress toward achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).Publication Open Access Sustainability indicators in a globalised poultry sector: production, consumption, trade openness, and GDP across 126 countries(Elsevier B.V., 2026-02-12) Silva, Y; Perera, N; Mendis, K; Susan, H; Jayathilaka, RThe sustainability of the meat industry relies on consistent demand and the desire for meat. In recent years, chicken was produced around 104.2 million metric tons and expected to increase by 2% in the upcoming years with a record of 109.6 million tons worldwide. Also, global chicken meat export will increase by 3% with a record of around 14.7 million tons. Therefore, this research focuses on investigating the causal relationships that have a significant impact on chicken production, considering independent variables as chicken consumption, trade openness, and GDP. This study is conducted across several income groups, encompassing 126 countries, for a 30-year period from 1993 to 2022. To strengthen the study, the demand theory and international trade theory were utilised. This study employs multiple methodologies, including panel Granger analysis, cross-country Granger causality analysis to identify the direction of causality, and thereafter the Wavelet coherence analysis to determine the time variance and the nature of the coherence between the variables. According to the study, the results have revealed unidirectional relationships between production and trade openness, chicken meat consumption, and GDP. Accordingly, policy suggestions are provided for farmers, policymakers, relevant organisations, and legislators to make an impact on the chicken meat industry by enhancing production, optimising operations, and maintaining high quality to improve nutritional value. All the implementation suggestions are given to support the Sustainable Development Goals, established by the United Nations.Publication Embargo From Tourism Growth to Sustainable Development: A Causality Analysis of Tourism, Exchange Rates, and Economic Growth in Asia(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-02-04) Wickramaarachchi, C; Jayathilaka, RTourism is widely recognised as a catalyst for sustainable development, particularly in regions where it supports employment, foreign exchange earnings and local entrepreneurship. However, the extent to which tourism contributes to sustainable development depends on macroeconomic stability and policy environments that enable long-term investment rather than short-term revenue maximisation. This study examines the causal relationships between tourism receipts, per capita GDP (PGDP), and exchange rates across 46 Asian countries from 2000 to 2020, while controlling for trade openness to account for broader external sector exposure. Employing a panel data framework that accounts for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, and mixed integration properties, the analysis combines second-generation unit root and cointegration tests with country-specific Granger causality techniques. The findings reveal substantial heterogeneity in causal dynamics across countries. In some economies, tourism-led growth emerges, where expanding tourism receipts stimulate economic growth. In others, economy-driven tourism dominates, indicating that rising income levels facilitate tourism development through improved infrastructure and destination competitiveness. Exchange rate stability plays an important conditioning role, shaping the extent to which tourism revenues translate into sustained development gains. Countries characterised by stable exchange rate environments are better positioned to channel tourism income toward long-term, sustainability-oriented investments. The study offers actionable policy insights by demonstrating that macroeconomic stability is a prerequisite for sustainable tourism development. Strengthening exchange rate governance, promoting eco-friendly tourism investment, and enhancing regional cooperation can support a transition from growth-oriented tourism strategies toward sustainable development pathways.Publication Open Access Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on Life Expectancy: A Global Perspective Across Income Levels(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-01-12) Kaluarachchi, S; Jayathilaka, RSocioeconomic factors influencing life expectancy are still underexplored across different income groups in global research. This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of longevity across global income levels, drawing on World Bank data to analyze how various economic and social factors influence lifespan worldwide. A stepwise panel data regression analysis was conducted to examine the determinants. The findings indicate that increase per capita gross domestic product and health expenditure substantially enhance lifespan, whereas increase population size, death rate, and infant mortality rate adversely impact life expectancy globally. In low-income countries, increase per capita gross domestic product, population size, and death rate significantly shorten life expectancy. In lower-middle-income countries, growing population size and death rate progressively lower life expectancy. In upper-middle-income countries, higher per capita gross domestic product significantly boosts longevity, while increase carbon dioxide emissions, population size, death rate, and infant mortality rate substantially reduce life expectancy. In high-income countries, increase male education significantly raises lifespan, while increase population size and death rate reduce life expectancy. These findings can help policymakers, governments, the World Health Organisation, the United Nations, and the World Bank address key issues affecting life expectancy, promoting global health and sustainable economic growth.