Business School Q1
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Publication Open Access Determinants of under-five mortality in Africa: evidence from a two-decade panel analysis for public health policy(BioMed Central Ltd, 2026-06-17) Rathnasekara, H; Jayathilaka, RBackground: Child survival is a critical indicator for a nation’s health and its progress is important in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals. Understanding the regional and country-specific dynamic and interplay of various determinants of under-five child mortality is vital for the African continent, which remains one of the most vulnerable regions for child mortality globally. Methods: This study investigates the association of economic, health-related, social and demographic, environmental, and infrastructure-related factors with under-five child mortality. It integrates generalisable regional associations using a standard fixed-effects panel model and examines illustrative country-specific associations of the selected determinants through multiple linear regression, based on a balanced panel dataset of 45 countries over a 22-year period. Results: Fixed-effect analysis reveals that the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) immunisation and total fertility rate (TFR) are robust regional determinants of under-five mortality across specifications. While health expenditure, sanitation services, and malaria incidence show significant associations in the baseline model, these findings are sensitive to the inclusion of year fixed effects, suggesting they are influenced by broader temporal trends or common regional shocks rather than serving as stable independent factors within the study period. Conclusion: Regional analysis, which controls for unobserved country-specific heterogeneity over an extended period and is complemented by country-specific analysis, facilitates the formulation of policy implications at both national and international levels. Recommended policy measures include increasing immunisation coverage, implementing malaria control programmes, strengthening community health infrastructure, enhancing girls’ education, promoting widespread access to modern family planning, and improving sanitation services. These strategies are expected to contribute to the progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 in the African region.Publication Open Access Drivers of carbon emissions in G7 economies: Evidence on energy use, globalisation, urbanisation, industrialisation and innovation(Elsevier Ltd, 2026-08-26) Weerasinghe, L; Vithanage, N; Rupasinghe, D; Keesha, C; Jayathilaka, RRising CO2 emissions remain a major sustainability challenge, particularly in advanced economies that account for a considerable share of historical emissions. This study examines the key determinants of CO₂ emissions in G7 countries by jointly considering globalisation, energy consumption, urbanisation, industrialisation, and technological innovation. Using a balanced panel dataset for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States over the period 1997–2023, the analysis applies panel regression techniques and country-specific multiple linear regressions to capture both common effects and heterogeneity across economies. The results indicate that energy consumption is a robust driver of CO₂ emissions across the G7. Technological innovation contributes to emission reduction at the panel level; however, its effect becomes statistically insignificant in country-specific estimations, reflecting cross-country differences in innovation structures and policy environments. Globalisation significantly increases emissions in Canada, while its influence is negligible elsewhere. Urbanisation shows a mitigating effect only in the United States, and industrialisation increases emissions in Canada and Italy but reduces emissions in Japan. Overall, the findings highlight that decarbonisation strategies in advanced economies should prioritise the transition to clean energy while strengthening innovation-oriented climate policies tailored to country-specific contexts.Publication Embargo Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on Life Expectancy: A Global Perspective Across Income Levels(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-01-26) Kaluarachchi, S; Jayathilaka, RSocioeconomic factors influencing life expectancy are still underexplored across different income groups in global research. This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of longevity across global income levels, drawing on World Bank data to analyze how various economic and social factors influence lifespan worldwide. A stepwise panel data regression analysis was conducted to examine the determinants. The findings indicate that increase per capita gross domestic product and health expenditure substantially enhance lifespan, whereas increase population size, death rate, and infant mortality rate adversely impact life expectancy globally. In low-income countries, increase per capita gross domestic product, population size, and death rate significantly shorten life expectancy. In lower-middle-income countries, growing population size and death rate progressively lower life expectancy. In upper-middle-income countries, higher per capita gross domestic product significantly boosts longevity, while increase carbon dioxide emissions, population size, death rate, and infant mortality rate substantially reduce life expectancy. In high-income countries, increase male education significantly raises lifespan, while increase population size and death rate reduce life expectancy. These findings can help policymakers, governments, the World Health Organisation, the United Nations, and the World Bank address key issues affecting life expectancy, promoting global health and sustainable economic growth.Publication Open Access Global hunger risk projections and the factors shaping future vulnerabilities(Elsevier B.V., 2026-06) Pulle, N; Sampath, P; Wijayaweera, D; Perera, S; Jayathilaka, RHunger remains one of the most persistent barriers to human development, with progress uneven across regions and increasingly exposed to economic instability, climate pressure and structural vulnerabilities. This study investigates the key drivers of cross-country variation in hunger severity and develops forward looking projections to support evidence based global policy planning. Using a comprehensive global panel dataset covering 146 countries over the period, 1992 to 2024 the analysis identifies the socio-economic and environmental factors more strongly associated with changes in hunger outcomes over time. The results reveal that hunger severity is not shaped by a single pathway but by a combination of development related conditions, demographic pressures, and external shocks with substantial heterogeneity across country groups. Building on the estimated relationships the study generates projections from 2025 to 2029, highlighting regions where hunger risks may remain elevated or worsened in the absence of targeted interventions. The findings underscore that substantial progress in hunger reduction requires integrated methods that extend beyond food supply alone including strengthening resilience, improving social protection and supporting inverse growth by combining long run global evidence with near turn projections. This study contributes to the literature on hunger dynamics and offers timely insights for international organisations and national policymakers working towards the achievement of food security and related Sustainable Development Goals.Publication Embargo Air pollution, socioeconomic development, and ischaemic heart disease mortality in Asia(Springer Science and Business Media, 2026-07) Cooray, D; Jayathilaka, RIschaemic Heart Disease (IHD) remains one of the leading causes of global mortality. Recent evidence indicates a persistent upward trend in IHD mortality in Asia, despite declines in many other regions. Increasing exposure to ambient air pollution, together with socioeconomic and behavioural transitions, suggests that environmental and social determinants may play an important role in shaping regional cardiovascular outcomes. This study investigates the combined influence of air pollution, socioeconomic development, behavioural factors, and pathological conditions on IHD mortality across 31 Asian countries from 2000 to 2021. Panel regression techniques were employed to capture temporal dynamics and cross-country heterogeneity. These were complemented by country-specific linear regressions to identify differential national-level effects. The analysis focuses on ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), alcohol consumption, anaemia prevalence, and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results show that a one-litre increase in per-capita alcohol consumption is associated with approximately eight additional IHD deaths per 100,000 population. Higher anaemia prevalence also significantly increases mortality risk. In addition, a 1% increase in PM2.5 exposure associated with approximately 0.4 additional IHD deaths per 100,000 population, highlighting the cardiovascular burden of poor air quality. In contrast, higher levels of socioeconomic development, reflected by improvements in HDI, are associated with a substantial reduction in IHD mortality. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy responses that combine air quality regulation with health, nutrition, and socioeconomic development strategies. Strengthening air pollution control, together with broader socioeconomic interventions, is essential for reducing the growing cardiovascular burden in Asia.Publication Embargo Investigating the Effects of Beef Consumption, Trade Openness, and Cattle Population on Beef Production in North America(Springer, 2026-08) Susan, H; Silva, Y; Perera, N; Mendis, K; Jayathilaka, R; Dabare, UWe examine how beef consumption, trade openness, and cattle count influence beef production across 14 countries from 1993 to 2022 using panel and multiple linear regression analyses. The findings show that beef consumption and cattle count have positive effects, while trade openness has a mixed effect on beef production when analyzed individually. These effects vary across countries due to factors such as quality and safety standards, bovine diseases, export and import barriers, trade policies, land availability, pasture conditions, veterinary services, and biosecurity knowledge. Our study highlights the need for strategies to improve these factors and demonstrates how such strategies align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).Publication Open Access Explainable AI for public health surveillance: investigating the persistent crisis of intentional injury mortality (suicide and homicide) in the Americas(Nature Research, 2026-05-24) Kularathne, S; Rathnayake, N; Jayathilaka, R; Nakaoka, I; Hoshino, YIntentional injury mortality (IIM), comprising homicide and suicide, remains a critical public health crisis in the Americas, which not only has the highest regional homicide rates globally but is also the only region where suicide rates continue to rise. This study employs explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to examine the structural and temporal drivers of IIM across 25 countries, based on data from the previous two decades. Two complementary models were developed: a snapshot model based on contemporaneous socioeconomic indicators and a persistence-aware model incorporating lagged effects of predictors. Analyses were conducted across both income-level categories and geographic sub-regions to uncover context-specific patterns. While both models performed at acceptable levels in distinguishing immediate and enduring effects, persistence-aware models consistently outperformed snapshot models, thereby reframing IIM as a temporally sustained phenomenon. Feature importance, interpreted through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), highlighted the varying impacts of unemployment, inflation, corruption, and economic growth across income tiers and sub-regions. The results demonstrate that a combination of short-term shocks and the long-standing effects of governance and social factors drives IIM in the Americas. These findings underscore the need for dual-horizon policy approaches that address both immediate crises and structural root causes.Publication Open Access Globalisation and environmental pressure in Europe: evidence from ecological footprint dynamics(Springer, 2026-05-12) Meegamaarachchi, C; Senavirathna, N; Perera, R; Reshini, P; Jayathilaka, R; Athalage, DBackground: Environmental degradation, as assessed by the ecological footprint, remains a significant global challenge. Although research has examined its linkages with globalisation, evidence remains fragmented and region-specific, thereby leaving uncertainties regarding global patterns and temporal causality. Methods: This study examines the predictive causal dynamics based on Granger causality between globalisation and environmental degradation across 35 European countries from 1993 to 2023, using the panel and country-level Granger causality and Wavelet Coherence analyses. Given the strong regulatory architecture of the European Union, understanding how global economic integration interacts with environmental outcomes is crucial for designing effective regional environmental governance strategies. Results: The findings demonstrate that environmental-globalisation dynamics in Europe operate through multi-scale interaction rather than uniform country-level pathways. These findings highlight the importance of supranational regulatory coordination within the European Union, where environmental governance is shaped not only by national policies but also by regional regulatory frameworks. Furthermore, the study’s findings underscore the importance of regional and country-specific policy implications. These patterns suggest potential heterogeneity across countries; however, given the statistical limitations associated with multiple testing and the small sample size. These findings should be interpreted as indicative rather than conclusive evidence of institutional differences. Time–frequency analysis reveals that globalisation intensifies ecological pressure in the short-term, while it demonstrates mitigating effects over the medium-term. This pattern is consistently observed across the empirical analysis. Conclusion: By employing the ecological footprint as a comprehensive indicator and introducing the LJC heat map visualisation, this study advances methodological and empirical understanding of the globalisation-environmental nexus, while providing targeted policy insights for SDG-aligned sustainability strategies.Publication Embargo Focus on Middle East and Central Asia: rationale of IMF assistance seeking(Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026-03) Wisenthige, K; Pathiranage, H. S.K; Jayathilaka, RThis study delves into the rationale behind the tendency of nations in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) to seek aid from the IMF. The IMF supports global financial stability, aiming to foster economic growth and prosperity across its member countries by promoting policies that encourage monetary cooperation and financial resilience. The study employs a conditional fixed-effects logit model, the analysis spans 22 years of data from twenty-five MECA countries to identify the factors driving these nations to seek IMF assistance. It focuses on six determinants: Current Account Balance (CAB), Inflation (INF), Corruption (CORR), General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), and Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG). The fixed-effects logit shows that slower GDP growth raises the odds of an IMF programme, while short-run changes in corruption control and public debt ratios are not significant once country and year effects are absorbed. Inflation is weakly positive; the current account balance is still insignificant. A post-GFC and an income-group robustness check confirm the pattern. Furthermore, the study identifies Lebanon, a lower-middle-income country, as a leading example of seeking IMF assistance during the study period. Overall, this research highlights the importance of policymakers understanding the dynamics and rankings within the MECA region to effectively address economic challenges, provide financial support, and foster a more sustainable economic structure.Publication Open Access Dynamic linkages between chicken meat production, consumption, income and trade: Evidence from Wavelet coherence and Granger causality in Asia(Elsevier Inc., 2026) Silva, Y; Susan, H; Perera, N; Mendis, K; Jayathilaka, R; Dabare, UThe poultry industry has become one of the fastest-growing agricultural sectors in Asia, driven by rising incomes, and shifting food preferences. Therefore, this study aims to examine the relationship between chicken meat production and key determinants, including chicken meat consumption, gross domestic product, and trade openness, over 30 years (1993-2022) across 28 Asian countries. This study's foundation was based on the theories of consumer demand and international trade. Wavelet coherence and Granger causality analysis were utilised to identify the direction of causality of the variables. The Wavelet results reveal that chicken consumption and GDP become most significant with the production in the Asian continent, while Granger results reveal that most Asian countries showed unidirectional causal flows from trade openness to chicken meat production and from chicken meat production to gross domestic product and consumption. Furthermore, this study provides novel insights that inform policy considerations for policymakers, international and domestic organisations, and governments, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations.