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Author: search.filters.author.Jayathilaka, RStart date: 2021

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 22
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Determinants of under-five mortality in Africa: evidence from a two-decade panel analysis for public health policy
    (BioMed Central Ltd, 2026-06-17) Rathnasekara, H; Jayathilaka, R
    Background: Child survival is a critical indicator for a nation’s health and its progress is important in attaining the Sustainable Development Goals. Understanding the regional and country-specific dynamic and interplay of various determinants of under-five child mortality is vital for the African continent, which remains one of the most vulnerable regions for child mortality globally. Methods: This study investigates the association of economic, health-related, social and demographic, environmental, and infrastructure-related factors with under-five child mortality. It integrates generalisable regional associations using a standard fixed-effects panel model and examines illustrative country-specific associations of the selected determinants through multiple linear regression, based on a balanced panel dataset of 45 countries over a 22-year period. Results: Fixed-effect analysis reveals that the diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) immunisation and total fertility rate (TFR) are robust regional determinants of under-five mortality across specifications. While health expenditure, sanitation services, and malaria incidence show significant associations in the baseline model, these findings are sensitive to the inclusion of year fixed effects, suggesting they are influenced by broader temporal trends or common regional shocks rather than serving as stable independent factors within the study period. Conclusion: Regional analysis, which controls for unobserved country-specific heterogeneity over an extended period and is complemented by country-specific analysis, facilitates the formulation of policy implications at both national and international levels. Recommended policy measures include increasing immunisation coverage, implementing malaria control programmes, strengthening community health infrastructure, enhancing girls’ education, promoting widespread access to modern family planning, and improving sanitation services. These strategies are expected to contribute to the progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 in the African region.
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    PublicationUnknown
    Drivers of carbon emissions in G7 economies: Evidence on energy use, globalisation, urbanisation, industrialisation and innovation
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2026-08-26) Weerasinghe, L; Vithanage, N; Rupasinghe, D; Keesha, C; Jayathilaka, R
    Rising CO2 emissions remain a major sustainability challenge, particularly in advanced economies that account for a considerable share of historical emissions. This study examines the key determinants of CO₂ emissions in G7 countries by jointly considering globalisation, energy consumption, urbanisation, industrialisation, and technological innovation. Using a balanced panel dataset for Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States over the period 1997–2023, the analysis applies panel regression techniques and country-specific multiple linear regressions to capture both common effects and heterogeneity across economies. The results indicate that energy consumption is a robust driver of CO₂ emissions across the G7. Technological innovation contributes to emission reduction at the panel level; however, its effect becomes statistically insignificant in country-specific estimations, reflecting cross-country differences in innovation structures and policy environments. Globalisation significantly increases emissions in Canada, while its influence is negligible elsewhere. Urbanisation shows a mitigating effect only in the United States, and industrialisation increases emissions in Canada and Italy but reduces emissions in Japan. Overall, the findings highlight that decarbonisation strategies in advanced economies should prioritise the transition to clean energy while strengthening innovation-oriented climate policies tailored to country-specific contexts.
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    PublicationUnknown
    Air pollution, socioeconomic development, and ischaemic heart disease mortality in Asia
    (Springer Science and Business Media, 2026-07) Cooray, D; Jayathilaka, R
    Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) remains one of the leading causes of global mortality. Recent evidence indicates a persistent upward trend in IHD mortality in Asia, despite declines in many other regions. Increasing exposure to ambient air pollution, together with socioeconomic and behavioural transitions, suggests that environmental and social determinants may play an important role in shaping regional cardiovascular outcomes. This study investigates the combined influence of air pollution, socioeconomic development, behavioural factors, and pathological conditions on IHD mortality across 31 Asian countries from 2000 to 2021. Panel regression techniques were employed to capture temporal dynamics and cross-country heterogeneity. These were complemented by country-specific linear regressions to identify differential national-level effects. The analysis focuses on ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), alcohol consumption, anaemia prevalence, and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results show that a one-litre increase in per-capita alcohol consumption is associated with approximately eight additional IHD deaths per 100,000 population. Higher anaemia prevalence also significantly increases mortality risk. In addition, a 1% increase in PM2.5 exposure associated with approximately 0.4 additional IHD deaths per 100,000 population, highlighting the cardiovascular burden of poor air quality. In contrast, higher levels of socioeconomic development, reflected by improvements in HDI, are associated with a substantial reduction in IHD mortality. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy responses that combine air quality regulation with health, nutrition, and socioeconomic development strategies. Strengthening air pollution control, together with broader socioeconomic interventions, is essential for reducing the growing cardiovascular burden in Asia.
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    PublicationUnknown
    Investigating the Effects of Beef Consumption, Trade Openness, and Cattle Population on Beef Production in North America
    (Springer, 2026-08) Susan, H; Silva, Y; Perera, N; Mendis, K; Jayathilaka, R; Dabare, U
    We examine how beef consumption, trade openness, and cattle count influence beef production across 14 countries from 1993 to 2022 using panel and multiple linear regression analyses. The findings show that beef consumption and cattle count have positive effects, while trade openness has a mixed effect on beef production when analyzed individually. These effects vary across countries due to factors such as quality and safety standards, bovine diseases, export and import barriers, trade policies, land availability, pasture conditions, veterinary services, and biosecurity knowledge. Our study highlights the need for strategies to improve these factors and demonstrates how such strategies align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Explainable AI for public health surveillance: investigating the persistent crisis of intentional injury mortality (suicide and homicide) in the Americas
    (Nature Research, 2026-05-24) Kularathne, S; Rathnayake, N; Jayathilaka, R; Nakaoka, I; Hoshino, Y
    Intentional injury mortality (IIM), comprising homicide and suicide, remains a critical public health crisis in the Americas, which not only has the highest regional homicide rates globally but is also the only region where suicide rates continue to rise. This study employs explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to examine the structural and temporal drivers of IIM across 25 countries, based on data from the previous two decades. Two complementary models were developed: a snapshot model based on contemporaneous socioeconomic indicators and a persistence-aware model incorporating lagged effects of predictors. Analyses were conducted across both income-level categories and geographic sub-regions to uncover context-specific patterns. While both models performed at acceptable levels in distinguishing immediate and enduring effects, persistence-aware models consistently outperformed snapshot models, thereby reframing IIM as a temporally sustained phenomenon. Feature importance, interpreted through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), highlighted the varying impacts of unemployment, inflation, corruption, and economic growth across income tiers and sub-regions. The results demonstrate that a combination of short-term shocks and the long-standing effects of governance and social factors drives IIM in the Americas. These findings underscore the need for dual-horizon policy approaches that address both immediate crises and structural root causes.
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    PublicationEmbargo
    Economic growth, poverty and female employment on crime rates at global level
    (Springer Science and Business Media, 2026-12) Sivakumar, T; Raveendran, T; Jayathilaka, R; Wickramaarachchi, C; Jayasuriya, N
    This study investigates the impact of female labour force participation, infant mortality rate, per capita gross domestic product, and urbanisation on crime rates globally and across different regions. Using panel regression techniques on secondary data collected from 106 countries over 34 years (1990-2023), the findings reveal that female labour force participation correlates positively with crime rates globally. The infant mortality rate is positively associated with crime in the European region. Conversely, per capita gross domestic product is negatively related to crime rates globally and in Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Urbanisation showed no significant association with crime rates globally or regionally. These insights may help government and law enforcement agencies formulate policies to reduce crime effectively.
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    PublicationUnknown
    Globalisation and environmental pressure in Europe: evidence from ecological footprint dynamics
    (Springer, 2026-05-12) Meegamaarachchi, C; Senavirathna, N; Perera, R; Reshini, P; Jayathilaka, R; Athalage, D
    Background: Environmental degradation, as assessed by the ecological footprint, remains a significant global challenge. Although research has examined its linkages with globalisation, evidence remains fragmented and region-specific, thereby leaving uncertainties regarding global patterns and temporal causality. Methods: This study examines the predictive causal dynamics based on Granger causality between globalisation and environmental degradation across 35 European countries from 1993 to 2023, using the panel and country-level Granger causality and Wavelet Coherence analyses. Given the strong regulatory architecture of the European Union, understanding how global economic integration interacts with environmental outcomes is crucial for designing effective regional environmental governance strategies. Results: The findings demonstrate that environmental-globalisation dynamics in Europe operate through multi-scale interaction rather than uniform country-level pathways. These findings highlight the importance of supranational regulatory coordination within the European Union, where environmental governance is shaped not only by national policies but also by regional regulatory frameworks. Furthermore, the study’s findings underscore the importance of regional and country-specific policy implications. These patterns suggest potential heterogeneity across countries; however, given the statistical limitations associated with multiple testing and the small sample size. These findings should be interpreted as indicative rather than conclusive evidence of institutional differences. Time–frequency analysis reveals that globalisation intensifies ecological pressure in the short-term, while it demonstrates mitigating effects over the medium-term. This pattern is consistently observed across the empirical analysis. Conclusion: By employing the ecological footprint as a comprehensive indicator and introducing the LJC heat map visualisation, this study advances methodological and empirical understanding of the globalisation-environmental nexus, while providing targeted policy insights for SDG-aligned sustainability strategies.
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    PublicationEmbargo
    Focus on Middle East and Central Asia: rationale of IMF assistance seeking
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026-03) Wisenthige, K; Pathiranage, H. S.K; Jayathilaka, R
    This study delves into the rationale behind the tendency of nations in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) to seek aid from the IMF. The IMF supports global financial stability, aiming to foster economic growth and prosperity across its member countries by promoting policies that encourage monetary cooperation and financial resilience. The study employs a conditional fixed-effects logit model, the analysis spans 22 years of data from twenty-five MECA countries to identify the factors driving these nations to seek IMF assistance. It focuses on six determinants: Current Account Balance (CAB), Inflation (INF), Corruption (CORR), General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), and Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG). The fixed-effects logit shows that slower GDP growth raises the odds of an IMF programme, while short-run changes in corruption control and public debt ratios are not significant once country and year effects are absorbed. Inflation is weakly positive; the current account balance is still insignificant. A post-GFC and an income-group robustness check confirm the pattern. Furthermore, the study identifies Lebanon, a lower-middle-income country, as a leading example of seeking IMF assistance during the study period. Overall, this research highlights the importance of policymakers understanding the dynamics and rankings within the MECA region to effectively address economic challenges, provide financial support, and foster a more sustainable economic structure.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Achieving zero hunger: A global policy lens on food security drivers and income group disparities
    (Elsevier B.V., 2026-03) Pulle, N; Sampath, P; Perera, S; Wijayaweera, D; Jayathilaka, R
    Many countries struggle to meet their daily dietary requirements despite numerous attempts to address the existing demand. Consequently, this study collectively analyses the impact of urbanisation, renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions, population growth, gross domestic product per capita and agricultural land on food production relying on Sen's Entitlement Theory, thus providing insights to resolve the long-standing issue of food insecurity, and support the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The study utilises a stepwise panel ordered Probit model on 146 countries, for the years 1993 to 2023. It further categorises the food production index into three categories of food security as; low, moderate and high, thereby enabling discussion of the likelihood of a country falling into one of the aforementioned food security categories over the years. Urbanisation, agricultural land, and the dummy variables introduced to represent the income groups have been identified to have a significant and favourable relationship with the food production index. In contrast, the greenhouse gas emissions and renewable energy variables have a significantly inverse impact on the food production index. This makes a unique contribution to the existing body of literature, especially by comparing odds over the years, across different food secure categories, countries, and their specific income levels. This study enables policymakers to gain a comprehensive historical perspective on each case. This study further promotes the Sustainable Development Goals, highlighting areas where these goals have been negatively impacted. Additionally, the study discusses optimised investment allocations, agricultural research and development, agricultural technology, climate resilient farming, and sustainable urbanisation planning as solutions for extreme cases.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Dynamic linkages between chicken meat production, consumption, income and trade: Evidence from Wavelet coherence and Granger causality in Asia
    (Elsevier Inc., 2026) Silva, Y; Susan, H; Perera, N; Mendis, K; Jayathilaka, R; Dabare, U
    The poultry industry has become one of the fastest-growing agricultural sectors in Asia, driven by rising incomes, and shifting food preferences. Therefore, this study aims to examine the relationship between chicken meat production and key determinants, including chicken meat consumption, gross domestic product, and trade openness, over 30 years (1993-2022) across 28 Asian countries. This study's foundation was based on the theories of consumer demand and international trade. Wavelet coherence and Granger causality analysis were utilised to identify the direction of causality of the variables. The Wavelet results reveal that chicken consumption and GDP become most significant with the production in the Asian continent, while Granger results reveal that most Asian countries showed unidirectional causal flows from trade openness to chicken meat production and from chicken meat production to gross domestic product and consumption. Furthermore, this study provides novel insights that inform policy considerations for policymakers, international and domestic organisations, and governments, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations.