Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emission from the Use Phase of Electric Vehicles in Thailand

Abstract

Electric vehicle is a solution to reduce global warming, carbon dioxide (CO2) emission, and environmental impact and achieve sustainable development goals. The Thai government planned that 30% of new vehicles produced in Thailand in 2030 would be zero-emission vehicles. With various government support, the number of EVs is expected to increase in the next few years abruptly. With an increased use of EVs, it is expected that the CO2 emission will be reduced. This study develops a system dynamics (SD) model utilizing an SD modelling approach to predict the number of EVs and examine the reduction of CO2 emissions from EVs in the use phase. It focuses on dynamic relationships between variables and is associated with the time-dependent behaviour of controlled systems. The simulation results show a CO2 emission reduction of 15.37 million tonnes in 2030. With continuous promotion of EVs, the amount of CO2 emission reduction is expected to be 37.29 million tonnes in 2036. The sensitivity analysis results reveal that by changing the driving distance from the minimum to maximum distances, only the magnitude of the model changes, while the model behaviour remains the same. This confirms the validity of the developed SD model. It is found that by maximizing the driving distance by 33%, the CO2 emission is further reduced by almost 50%. Moreover, when the government support period is changed to four years, the CO2 emission reduction becomes 19.73 million tonnes, reaching the government target of a 30% reduction in 2030. The Thai government may use the study results to plan for supporting policies to enhance the demand for EVs and achieve the SDGs in the long term. Different policies may be tested to select suitable policies for implementation. Countries with similar EV market statuses may adjust the study results to suit their implementation.