Forecasting renewable energy for microgrids using machine learning

Abstract

Microgrids, comprised of interconnected loads and distributed energy resources, function as single controllable entities with respect to the main grid. However, the inherent variability of distributed wind and solar generation within microgrids presents operational stability challenges concerning voltage regulation and frequency stability. Accurate forecasting of renewable generation is crucial for mitigating these challenges. This work proposes a one-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (1-D CNN) based approach to forecast photovoltaic (PV) generation and wind energy, using data from the University of California, San Diego microgrid and San Diego Airport weather records. The proposed method is evaluated against various forecasting methods using key metrics: Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and R-squared value. Results show that the 1-D CNN model achieves an improvement of up to 229.8 times in MSE and a 24.47 fold improvement in MAE compared to baseline models that use traditional statistical methods in forecasting. This demonstrates the potential of machine learning for enhancing microgrid management, particularly in short-term forecasting of renewable generation. © The Author(s) 2025.

Evaluated ML-based renewable energy forecasting models by implementing 1-D CNN and LSTM models using real-world data. Proposed 1-D CNN performs better than LSTM and baseline models, achieving higher accuracy and computational efficiency. Accurate forecasting of PV and wind energy generation enhances grid stability, reduces backup power dependency, and supports sustainable energy integration.