Predictive Model for Monthly Made Tea Production in Sri Lanka

Publication:
Predictive Model for Monthly Made Tea Production in Sri Lanka

dc.contributor.author	Subasinghe, C
dc.contributor.author	Wattegedara, N
dc.contributor.author	Silva, T
dc.contributor.author	Balasooriya, S
dc.contributor.author	Dassanayake, K
dc.contributor.author	Guruge, M.L
dc.date.accessioned	2026-01-11T09:20:21Z
dc.date.issued	2025-10-10
dc.description.abstract	This study forecasts monthly tea production in Sri Lanka by developing a suitable time series model to identify future trends in the national tea industry. The analysis is based on monthly made tea production data from January 2000 to June 2025, obtained from the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Sri Lanka Tea Board. After confirming the non-stationarity of the original series through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, both first-order and seasonal differencing were applied to achieve stationarity. The Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plotswere used to identify potential model structures.
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.54389/AJFR6117
dc.identifier.isbn	978-624-6010-14-0
dc.identifier.issn	2783 – 8862
dc.identifier.uri	https://rda.sliit.lk/handle/123456789/4507
dc.language.iso	en
dc.publisher	Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Humanities and Sciences, SLIIT
dc.relation.ispartofseries	ICActS 2025; 75p.-81p.
dc.subject	Tea production
dc.subject	Time series forecasting
dc.subject	Sri Lanka
dc.subject	SARIMA
dc.title	Predictive Model for Monthly Made Tea Production in Sri Lanka
dc.type	Article
dspace.entity.type	Publication