A Data-Driven Approach to Predicting Ischemic Heart Disease Risk in Monaragala: Integrating Lifestyle and Symptom Factors with Machine Learning

Abstract

Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide and presents a critical challenge in underserved rural areas such as Monaragala, Sri Lanka. Traditional IHD prediction methods predominantly depend on clinical diagnostics like ECGs and blood tests, which are often unavailable or inaccessible in such regions. This study aims to bridge this gap by developing a machine learning-based prediction model that utilizes only lifestyle and symptom-related data, eliminating the need for invasive clinical procedures. A dataset comprising lifestyle habits (e.g., diet, smoking, alcohol use, exercise) and symptom indicators (e.g., chest pain, fatigue, dizziness) was collected via surveys. Feature selection using Logistic Regression identified the top eight most relevant predictors. Five machine learning algorithms, Logistic Regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine, Decision Tree, and Random Forest, were trained and evaluated. Among them, the Random Forest model achieved the highest performance with an accuracy of 83.5%, precision of 0.86, recall of 0.78, and F1- score of 0.81, demonstrating strong predictive capability based solely on non-clinical features. In addition, a web-based self-assessment tool was developed to make the model accessible to the public, particularly targeting individuals in rural areas with limited healthcare access. The tool enables users to input basic lifestyle and symptom information and receive a real-time risk assessment. The findings confirm that the model leveraging lifestyle and symptom data can effectively identify individuals at risk of IHD. This approach supports the development of scalable, low-cost, and user-friendly screening tools that can enhance early detection and preventive care, especially in rural and resource-constrained settings.