Global agricultural expansion and forest loss: a panel data analysis of major oilseed crop expansion and its impact on global forest cover across continents

Abstract

Vegetable oil production has expanded rapidly over the past two decades, raising concerns about its environmental consequences. This study examines the impact of palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil cultivation on agriculture-driven deforestation across six continents over 23 years (2001–2023). Using secondary data from the Food and Agriculture Organisation and Global Forest Watch, this study has constructed a balanced panel dataset of 138 observations (6 continents × 23 years). Panel regression analysis was employed, with model selection guided by Hausman and Breusch-Pagan tests, ultimately favouring the Random Effects estimator. Results indicate that palm oil (β = 0.109, p < 0.05) and soybean oil (β = 0.389, p < 0.01) are strongly associated with forest loss, particularly in Asia and South America. Sunflower oil also shows a positive impact (β = 0.189, p < 0.05), while rapeseed oil demonstrates a negative impact (β = − 0.151, p < 0.05), suggesting comparatively lower deforestation pressures in temperate regions. Confidence intervals and standard errors confirm the robustness of these findings. By integrating multiple oil crops simultaneously, this study provides a comprehensive assessment of how global demand for vegetable oils translates into forest loss. The results highlight the need for crop-specific and region-specific strategies to mitigate environmental impacts while balancing agricultural development with forest conservation.