Development Of An Ai-Based Model With Low Computational Complexity For Accurate Solar Energy Forecasting

Abstract

This paper introduces a short-term solar energy forecasting model that is designed with a focus on low computational complexity and addresses the challenges posed by fluctuations in solar energy generation, which are significantly influenced by environmental factors. These fluctuations can lead to instability when solar power generation systems are integrated into national energy grids, creating difficulties in maintaining a balanced supply and demand. If solar energy generation can be accurately forecasted before fluctuations occur, potential issues can be identified in advance, allowing for better management of the energy system, including optimizing storage facilities when energy generation is high. Current solar energy forecasting systems face significant challenges due to their high computational complexity, which results in increased power consumption and lower accuracy. To address these issues, this study focuses on the development of an artificial intelligence (AI)-based forecasting model using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The goal is to reduce the computational complexity of the model while maintaining high accuracy. To achieve this, various data analysis and complexity reduction techniques, such as variable reduction, pruning, and quantization, were applied. The performance of the optimized AI model was evaluated by comparing the forecasted values to actual solar energy generation data. The results demonstrate that the proposed model successfully reduces computational complexity while maintaining a satisfactory level of accuracy. This optimization makes the model more suitable for real-time forecasting, particularly in resource-constrained environments, and provides a more efficient approach to solar energy management. The findings of this study suggest that AI-based forecasting models can play a critical role in enhancing the integration of solar energy into national grids, ensuring a more reliable and sustainable energy supply. Further research could explore additional optimization techniques and the introduction of generalization techniques to improve transferability of the model and applicability across diverse geographical regions. Additionally, focus on utilizing AI techniques that minimize computational complexity without compromising the accuracy of the model, aiming to maintain high forecasting precision while optimizing the efficiency of the system.