How We Apply Agent-Based Modeling of Climate-Induced Internal Migration in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Climate change has become a major driver of internal migration, especially in developing countries where agriculture-dependent populations are highly vulnerable to environmental shocks. This study presents an agent-based model (ABM) for simulating climate-induced internal migration in Sri Lanka. The model integrates seasonal climate variability, household economic conditions, crop failures, food insecurity, aid interventions, and return migration. Implemented in NetLogo, the simulation represents 300 heterogeneous household agents distributed across coastal, dry, and wet climatic zones. Results show that migration emerges through the interaction of climate stress, repeated crop failure, and economic hardship. Climate stress contributes 40% of migration pressure, crop failure 32%, and economic factors 28%. Aid interventions reduce displacement by 35% and increase return migration by 47%. The model offers a practical framework for understanding migration dynamics and evaluating climate adaptation policies in vulnerable regions.