Research Papers - Dept of Information of Management

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Start date: 2021Subject: search.filters.subject.Inflation

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Explainable AI for public health surveillance: investigating the persistent crisis of intentional injury mortality (suicide and homicide) in the Americas
    (Nature Research, 2026-05-24) Kularathne, S; Rathnayake, N; Jayathilaka, R; Nakaoka, I; Hoshino, Y
    Intentional injury mortality (IIM), comprising homicide and suicide, remains a critical public health crisis in the Americas, which not only has the highest regional homicide rates globally but is also the only region where suicide rates continue to rise. This study employs explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to examine the structural and temporal drivers of IIM across 25 countries, based on data from the previous two decades. Two complementary models were developed: a snapshot model based on contemporaneous socioeconomic indicators and a persistence-aware model incorporating lagged effects of predictors. Analyses were conducted across both income-level categories and geographic sub-regions to uncover context-specific patterns. While both models performed at acceptable levels in distinguishing immediate and enduring effects, persistence-aware models consistently outperformed snapshot models, thereby reframing IIM as a temporally sustained phenomenon. Feature importance, interpreted through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), highlighted the varying impacts of unemployment, inflation, corruption, and economic growth across income tiers and sub-regions. The results demonstrate that a combination of short-term shocks and the long-standing effects of governance and social factors drives IIM in the Americas. These findings underscore the need for dual-horizon policy approaches that address both immediate crises and structural root causes.
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    PublicationEmbargo
    Focus on Middle East and Central Asia: rationale of IMF assistance seeking
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2026-03) Wisenthige, K; Pathiranage, H. S.K; Jayathilaka, R
    This study delves into the rationale behind the tendency of nations in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) to seek aid from the IMF. The IMF supports global financial stability, aiming to foster economic growth and prosperity across its member countries by promoting policies that encourage monetary cooperation and financial resilience. The study employs a conditional fixed-effects logit model, the analysis spans 22 years of data from twenty-five MECA countries to identify the factors driving these nations to seek IMF assistance. It focuses on six determinants: Current Account Balance (CAB), Inflation (INF), Corruption (CORR), General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), and Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG). The fixed-effects logit shows that slower GDP growth raises the odds of an IMF programme, while short-run changes in corruption control and public debt ratios are not significant once country and year effects are absorbed. Inflation is weakly positive; the current account balance is still insignificant. A post-GFC and an income-group robustness check confirm the pattern. Furthermore, the study identifies Lebanon, a lower-middle-income country, as a leading example of seeking IMF assistance during the study period. Overall, this research highlights the importance of policymakers understanding the dynamics and rankings within the MECA region to effectively address economic challenges, provide financial support, and foster a more sustainable economic structure.
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    PublicationEmbargo
    Focus on Middle East and Central Asia: rationale of IMF assistance seeking
    (Springer Science and Business, 2025-11-08) Wisenthige, K; Pathiranage, H.S.K; Jayathilaka, R
    This study delves into the rationale behind the tendency of nations in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) to seek aid from the IMF. The IMF supports global financial stability, aiming to foster economic growth and prosperity across its member countries by promoting policies that encourage monetary cooperation and financial resilience. The study employs a conditional fixed-effects logit model, the analysis spans 22 years of data from twenty-five MECA countries to identify the factors driving these nations to seek IMF assistance. It focuses on six determinants: Current Account Balance (CAB), Inflation (INF), Corruption (CORR), General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), and Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG). The fixed-effects logit shows that slower GDP growth raises the odds of an IMF programme, while short-run changes in corruption control and public debt ratios are not significant once country and year effects are absorbed. Inflation is weakly positive; the current account balance is still insignificant. A post-GFC and an income-group robustness check confirm the pattern. Furthermore, the study identifies Lebanon, a lower-middle-income country, as a leading example of seeking IMF assistance during the study period. Overall, this research highlights the importance of policymakers understanding the dynamics and rankings within the MECA region to effectively address economic challenges, provide financial support, and foster a more sustainable economic structure.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Testing the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity: A Comparison of Sri Lanka and Pakistan
    (SSRN, 2021-05) Nagendrakumar, N; Madhavika, W. D. N; Abusaly, H; Nawarathna, N. M. D; Yohan, H. P. Y. S; Attanayaka, L. G; Fernando, D
    This study investigates the strong and the weak relationship between macroeconomic variables and the purchasing power parity of Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Purchasing power parity is compared with the relative price level of identical product available in both countries. This paper includes 20 years of macroeconomic annual data from 1997 to 2016. These data have been analyzed using descriptive statistic, reliability test and time series multiple regression. Result reveals that real exchange rate is not constant in both economies of Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and this illustrates Sri Lanka has weak relationship between the purchasing power parity and exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, money supply, gross domestic product, foreign direct investment, whereas Pakistan has strong relationship between the selected macroeconomic variables and the purchasing power parity. This study helps enhance knowledge about how purchasing power parity affects the growth of the economies