Business School Q1
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Publication Open Access Global economic uncertainty shocks and macroeconomic dynamics before and after COVID-19: Evidence from Africa and the Americas(Elsevier Inc., 2026-04-03) Madurawala, R; Navamohan, P; Gamage, D; Hansika, S; Jayathilaka, RGlobal economic uncertainty has become a central driver of macroeconomic instability, particularly during large-scale crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines how global uncertainty shocks affect key macroeconomic variables, particularly suicide rates, economic growth, unemployment, and trade openness across 62 countries in Africa, South America, and North America over the period of 2004–2023 as the countries in these regions exhibit the highest uncertainty post-pandemic. Utilising the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, the analysis distinguishes between pre- and post-pandemic uncertainty-socioeconomic dynamics to assess the bidirectional and cointegrating relationships across regions. The study employs Multiple Linear Regression to capture short-term macroeconomic responses and panel and country-level cointegration techniques to identify long-run relationships between economic uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Global uncertainty is proxied using the World Uncertainty Index, which captures broad policy, geopolitical, and crisis-related uncertainty affecting expectations and real economic activity. Unlike, existing studies which reveal insights in a particular region or country, the current findings uncover bi-directional relationships in 21 countries post-pandemic, with notable relationships in Algeria, Botswana, Gabon, Guinea, Madagascar, Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Bolivia, Paraguay. Moreover, long-run cointegration between uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators strengthens in the post-COVID-19 period, particularly in countries of Africa and North America. By analysing countries in the highest uncertainty regions the study contributes to the international macroeconomics literature by providing new evidence on how global uncertainty shocks reshape macroeconomic dynamics across regions with heterogeneous economic structures, offering important implications for macroeconomic stabilisation in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.Publication Open Access Life expectancy economic growth and resilience in resource constrained economies in the context of COVID-19 and the sustainable development goals(Springer Nature, 2025-11-12) Samadhini, D; Lakshan, P; Nirmani, P; Dulmin, L; Jayathilaka, RThis study contributes to the sustainable development discourse by examining the interplay between health (life expectancy) and economic growth (EG), which is central to Sustainable Development Goals 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). By investigating the dynamic relationship between Life Expectancy (LE) and EG, measured by LE rates and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), in 51 low and lower-middle-income countries from 1990 to 2023, with a particular focus on the disruptive impact of COVID-19. Employing Wavelet Coherence analysis, Granger Causality, and Johansen Cointegration tests, this study reveals critical relationships and identifies both short and long-term equilibrium linkages within health and economic systems. By explicitly situating the findings within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the study highlights how improvements in population health (SDG 3) and economic resilience (SDG 8) can be mutually reinforcing. It further provides evidence to guide policy interventions and sustainable development strategies. Further results indicate that, while the pandemic weakened short-term causalities, long-term cointegration remains intact, underscoring the need for integrated strategies that simultaneously strengthen health systems and promote inclusive EG. These insights provide critical guidelines for policymakers in resource-constrained contexts seeking to progress toward the SDGs and enhance resilience against future economic shocks. The findings provide insight into how health-system strengthening, and sustainable economic policies can jointly advance progress toward the SDGs.Publication Open Access Factors influencing migration intention of undergraduates in Sri Lanka: ‘About more than employment(Elsevier Ltd, 2026-01-26) Marawila, R; Weerarathna, R; Rathnayake, N; Guruge, R; Wehella, B; Udugahapattuwa, T; Weligodapola, MThe objective of this study is to examine the factors influencing Sri Lankan undergraduates' intention to migrate. Persistent economic, social, and political challenges have driven many youngsters and professionals to leave their Country of Origin (COO). The economic collapse triggered by COVID-19 further intensified this trend, leading to a sharp increase in outward migration. Recently, a growing number of Sri Lankan undergraduates and skilled professionals have expressed a strong desire to relocate abroad, often immediately after completing secondary education. For this study, a sample of 385 undergraduates from state and non-state universities across Sri Lanka was analysed. Given the national concerns of brain drain and shortages of trained and skilled workers, the study specifically focused on understanding undergraduates' aspirations to migrate. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) was applied to identify and test the variables influencing migration intentions within the Sri Lankan context. The findings provide a holistic picture of the drivers of undergraduate migration. These carry important implications not only for students but also for policymakers and Higher Education Institutions (HEIs), by informing policies and strategies that could encourage young people to realise their potential within Sri Lanka rather than abroad.Publication Open Access Restoring life expectancy in low-income countries: the combined impact of COVID-19, health expenditure, GDP, and child mortality(BioMed Central Ltd, 2025-03-06) Karunarathne, M.; Buddhika, P; Priyamantha, A; Mayogya, P; Jayathilaka, R; Dayapathirana, NBackground: Life expectancy is a vital indicator of a country’s health and progress. Low-income countries face uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by health expenditure levels, concerns over rising child mortality rates, and decreasing per capita income. These factors challenge life expectancy and demand urgent attention. This study aims to identify patterns, challenges, and opportunities to improve life expectancy in these countries through better health policies and resource allocation. Methods: The research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, health expenditure, per capita income, and child mortality rates on life expectancy in low-income countries. By examining 22 years of data from 20 countries, using a comprehensive dataset from the Our World in Data database, this study employs panel regression and time series analysis to explore how these factors influence life expectancy. Results: The findings indicate a significant negative effect of COVID-19 on life expectancy, while health expenditure and per capita income show a positive impact. Conversely, child mortality rates exert a negative effect on life expectancy in low-income countries. Conclusion: This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by analysing how COVID-19, health expenditure, per capita income, and child mortality collectively affect life expectancy in low-income countries. The insights gained may inform policymakers and health consultants about the need for targeted interventions, prioritising healthcare investment and child health. By addressing these critical areas, it may be possible to improve life expectancy and overall health outcomes, thus contributing to global health equity. © The Author(s) 2025.