Research Publications

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Open Access
Deep Machine Learning-Based Water Level Prediction Model for Colombo Flood Detention Area
(MDPI, 2023-02-08) Herath, M; Jayathilaka, T; Hoshino, Y; Rathnayake, U
Machine learning has already been proven as a powerful state-of-the-art technique for many non-linear applications, including environmental changes and climate predictions. Wetlands are among some of the most challenging and complex ecosystems for water level predictions. Wetland water level prediction is vital, as wetlands have their own permissible water levels. Exceeding these water levels can cause flooding and other severe environmental damage. On the other hand, the biodiversity of the wetlands is threatened by the sudden fluctuation of water levels. Hence, early prediction of water levels benefits in mitigating most of such environmental damage. However, monitoring and predicting the water levels in wetlands worldwide have been limited owing to various constraints. This study presents the first-ever application of deep machine-learning techniques (deep neural networks) to predict the water level in an urban wetland in Sri Lanka located in its capital. Moreover, for the first time in water level prediction, it investigates two types of relationships: the traditional relationship between water levels and environmental factors, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, and evaporation, and the temporal relationship between daily water levels. Two types of low load artificial neural networks (ANNs) were developed and employed to analyze two relationships which are feed forward neural networks (FFNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, to conduct the comparison on an unbiased common ground. The LSTM has outperformed FFNN and confirmed that the temporal relationship is much more robust in predicting wetland water levels than the traditional relationship. Further, the study identified interesting relationships between prediction accuracy, data volume, ANN type, and degree of information extraction embedded in wetland data. The LSTM neural networks (NN) has achieved substantial performance, including R2 of 0.8786, mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0004, and mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0155 compared to existing studies.
Open Access
Wetland Water Level Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks—A Case Study in the Colombo Flood Detention Area, Sri Lanka
(MDPI, 2023-01) Jayathilake, T; Sarukkalige, R; Hoshino, Y; Rathnayake, U
Historically, wetlands have not been given much attention in terms of their value due to the general public being unaware. Nevertheless, wetlands are still threatened by many anthropogenic activities, in addition to ongoing climate change. With these recent developments, water level prediction of wetlands has become an important task in order to identify potential environmental damage and for the sustainable management of wetlands. Therefore, this study identified a reliable neural network model by which to predict wetland water levels over the Colombo flood detention area, Sri Lanka. This is the first study conducted using machine learning techniques in wetland water level predictions in Sri Lanka. The model was developed with independent meteorological variables, including rainfall, evaporation, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. The water levels measurements of previous years were used as dependent variables, and the analysis was based on a seasonal timescale. Two neural network training algorithms, the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (LM) and the Scaled Conjugate algorithm (SG), were used to model the nonlinear relationship, while the Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CC) were used as the performance indices by which to understand the robustness of the model. In addition, uncertainty analysis was carried out using d-factor simulations. The performance indicators showed that the LM algorithm produced better results by which to model the wetland water level ahead of the SC algorithm, with a mean squared error of 0.0002 and a coefficient of correlation of 0.99. In addition, the computational efficiencies were excellent in the LM algorithm compared to the SC algorithm in terms of the prediction of water levels. LM showcased 3–5 epochs, whereas SC showcased 34–50 epochs of computational efficiencies for all four seasonal predictions. However, the d-factor showcased that the results were not within the cluster of uncertainty. Therefore, the overall results suggest that the Artificial Neural Network can be successfully used to predict the wetland water levels, which is immensely important in the management and conservation of the wetlands

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