Research Publications
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Publication Embargo Economic Uncertainty as a Sustainability Risk: Cross-Income Directional Evidence From 135 Countries(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-06-15) Navamohan, P; Gamage, D; Hansika, S; Madurawala, R; Jayathilaka, R; Weerathunga, WThis paper examines the direction of causality and the relationship between economic uncertainty, suicide rates, unemployment, economic growth, and trade openness across different income levels. By situating these relationships within a sustainability framework, the study conceptualises economic uncertainty as a systemic risk affecting social stability, labour markets, and long-term development trajectories. The analysis investigates 135 countries from 2000 to 2022, employing Granger causality and Multiple Linear Regression, with robustness tests using varying lag lengths to assess the reliability of the results. The findings reveal that economic uncertainty acts as a cross-dimensional sustainability stressor influencing socioeconomic systems across income strata, confirming prior evidence while extending it through Granger-causal analysis. Our findings show that in low-income countries economic uncertainty and unemployment rates have a bidirectional relationship. In lower-middle-income countries, suicide rates and trade openness affect economic uncertainty, while in upper-middle-income countries, suicide rates, economic growth, and trade openness affect economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that economic uncertainty can be mitigated through improvements in mental healthcare services, the promotion of free trade agreements, advancements in education and technology, and fostering economic diversification. Recommendations for policymakers tailored to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals are provided in this study to mitigate uncertainty risks on sustainability. These findings contribute to sustainability science by demonstrating how uncertainty functions as a structural constraint on inclusive and resilient development pathways.Publication Embargo Socio-Economic and Environmental Drivers of Food Security in Low-Income Countries: A 32-Year Cross-National Analysis for Sustainable Development(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-04-06) Pulle, N; Sampath, P; Wijayaweera, D; Perera, S; Jayathilaka, R; Dabare, UEnsuring countries meet their basic food security needs has been a long-standing challenge. Despite numerous attempts to tackle this issue, it remains unresolved. Hence, considering the broad reach of this concern, our study aims to collectively analyse how urbanisation, greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy consumption, population growth, agricultural land, and gross domestic product per capita impact food security across countries. This study tests a stepwise panel-ordered probit model, utilising data from 17 low-income countries from 1992 to 2023. The research categorises the food production index into three categories: low, moderate, and high food security, allowing for the analysis of the likelihood of falling into a category of the food production index. The outcomes reveal that in low-income countries, urbanisation, greenhouse gas emissions, population growth, and agricultural land have a positive impact on the food production index, whereas renewable energy consumption has an insignificant negative impact. This analysis contributes distinctively to the existing body of knowledge by comparatively analysing the probabilities over the given period, together with the financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, thus providing insights into both events. Furthermore, this report highlights the effectiveness of policies implemented, focusing on the efficient use of agricultural land through technological advancements, promoting modern farming techniques, encouraging youth engagement in agriculture, managing population growth, and innovating climate-resilient strategies, which are directly aligned with the research findings. These recommendations address specific challenges identified in the highlighted countries, helping improve their food security and promote sustainable development.Publication Embargo Globalisation and CO 2 Emissions: Evidence From theWorld’s Largest Emitters(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-07-01) Ansar, A; Illiyas, O; Hussain, M; Hansani, C; Jayathilaka, R; Chandrasiri, RThe study examines the predictive relationship between political, economic, and social dimensions of globalisation and CO2 emissions across the world's largest emitting countries using a country-level VAR Granger causality framework. Political globalisation Granger-causes emissions in Australia and Japan, whereas emissions exhibit predictive precedence towards political globalisation in the United States. Economic globalisation demonstrates predictive bidirectional causal evidence with emissions in India and Malaysia, while social globalisation exhibits a predictive relationship with emissions in Canada, Japan, and Mexico. The findings highlight substantial heterogeneity in the predictive relationships between dimensions of globalisation and CO2 emissions across countries, reflecting differences in governance structures, industrial composition, and energy dependency patterns. Unlike panel-average estimation approaches, the country-level framework allows the identification of heterogeneous country-specific temporal dynamics across the major emitters. Nevertheless, the findings should be interpreted as a predictive relationship rather than definitive structural causation and may remain sensitive to omitted variables and long-run equilibrium dynamics which are not captured within the short-term VAR framework. The study contributes to additional country-specific evidence relevant to climate governance and sustainability-orientated policy discussions among major emitting economies.Publication Open Access Impact of Economic Globalisation on Agricultural Value-Added: The African Region Experience(Springer, 2026-01-27) Wisenthige, K; Jayathilaka, RGlobalisation has been a critical driver of economic growth in many nations. However, the agricultural sector has yet to realise its full potential in terms of agricultural value-added and the distribution of benefits to primary producers within value chains. Notably, the African region possesses a high potential for agricultural value-addition compared to other regions. This research examines the impact of economic globalisation on agricultural value-added within the African context. Using advanced statistical techniques, including panel data regression and multiple linear regression, the study assesses the influence of globalisation on agricultural value-added across 26 African countries from 2000 to 2021. The findings indicate that, while certain countries have benefitted significantly from economic globalisation, enhancing their agricultural value, the majority still require a greater focus on optimising agricultural value addition. Senegal exhibited the most pronounced impact on agricultural value addition, whereas Burkina Faso, Morocco, South Africa, Tunisia, and Uganda showed negligible impacts. Policies aimed at optimising fertiliser inputs, advancing technology, developing the technical knowledge, skills, and attitudes of the agricultural labour force, facilitating foreign market access for raw materials, and promoting sustainable agricultural practices could help enhance value addition and support the overall economic development of the African region. This research contributes to the knowledge-based economy by providing empirical insights into the factors driving agricultural value-added, underscoring the role of knowledge creation, diffusion, and application in boosting agricultural productivity and economic growth in the African region.Publication Embargo Impact of Socioeconomic Factors on Life Expectancy: A Global Perspective Across Income Levels(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-01-26) Kaluarachchi, S; Jayathilaka, RSocioeconomic factors influencing life expectancy are still underexplored across different income groups in global research. This study investigates the socioeconomic determinants of longevity across global income levels, drawing on World Bank data to analyze how various economic and social factors influence lifespan worldwide. A stepwise panel data regression analysis was conducted to examine the determinants. The findings indicate that increase per capita gross domestic product and health expenditure substantially enhance lifespan, whereas increase population size, death rate, and infant mortality rate adversely impact life expectancy globally. In low-income countries, increase per capita gross domestic product, population size, and death rate significantly shorten life expectancy. In lower-middle-income countries, growing population size and death rate progressively lower life expectancy. In upper-middle-income countries, higher per capita gross domestic product significantly boosts longevity, while increase carbon dioxide emissions, population size, death rate, and infant mortality rate substantially reduce life expectancy. In high-income countries, increase male education significantly raises lifespan, while increase population size and death rate reduce life expectancy. These findings can help policymakers, governments, the World Health Organisation, the United Nations, and the World Bank address key issues affecting life expectancy, promoting global health and sustainable economic growth.Publication Open Access Global hunger risk projections and the factors shaping future vulnerabilities(Elsevier B.V., 2026-06) Pulle, N; Sampath, P; Wijayaweera, D; Perera, S; Jayathilaka, RHunger remains one of the most persistent barriers to human development, with progress uneven across regions and increasingly exposed to economic instability, climate pressure and structural vulnerabilities. This study investigates the key drivers of cross-country variation in hunger severity and develops forward looking projections to support evidence based global policy planning. Using a comprehensive global panel dataset covering 146 countries over the period, 1992 to 2024 the analysis identifies the socio-economic and environmental factors more strongly associated with changes in hunger outcomes over time. The results reveal that hunger severity is not shaped by a single pathway but by a combination of development related conditions, demographic pressures, and external shocks with substantial heterogeneity across country groups. Building on the estimated relationships the study generates projections from 2025 to 2029, highlighting regions where hunger risks may remain elevated or worsened in the absence of targeted interventions. The findings underscore that substantial progress in hunger reduction requires integrated methods that extend beyond food supply alone including strengthening resilience, improving social protection and supporting inverse growth by combining long run global evidence with near turn projections. This study contributes to the literature on hunger dynamics and offers timely insights for international organisations and national policymakers working towards the achievement of food security and related Sustainable Development Goals.Publication Embargo Air pollution, socioeconomic development, and ischaemic heart disease mortality in Asia(Springer Science and Business Media, 2026-07) Cooray, D; Jayathilaka, RIschaemic Heart Disease (IHD) remains one of the leading causes of global mortality. Recent evidence indicates a persistent upward trend in IHD mortality in Asia, despite declines in many other regions. Increasing exposure to ambient air pollution, together with socioeconomic and behavioural transitions, suggests that environmental and social determinants may play an important role in shaping regional cardiovascular outcomes. This study investigates the combined influence of air pollution, socioeconomic development, behavioural factors, and pathological conditions on IHD mortality across 31 Asian countries from 2000 to 2021. Panel regression techniques were employed to capture temporal dynamics and cross-country heterogeneity. These were complemented by country-specific linear regressions to identify differential national-level effects. The analysis focuses on ambient particulate matter (PM2.5), alcohol consumption, anaemia prevalence, and the Human Development Index (HDI). The results show that a one-litre increase in per-capita alcohol consumption is associated with approximately eight additional IHD deaths per 100,000 population. Higher anaemia prevalence also significantly increases mortality risk. In addition, a 1% increase in PM2.5 exposure associated with approximately 0.4 additional IHD deaths per 100,000 population, highlighting the cardiovascular burden of poor air quality. In contrast, higher levels of socioeconomic development, reflected by improvements in HDI, are associated with a substantial reduction in IHD mortality. These findings highlight the need for integrated policy responses that combine air quality regulation with health, nutrition, and socioeconomic development strategies. Strengthening air pollution control, together with broader socioeconomic interventions, is essential for reducing the growing cardiovascular burden in Asia.Publication Embargo Investigating the Effects of Beef Consumption, Trade Openness, and Cattle Population on Beef Production in North America(Springer, 2026-08) Susan, H; Silva, Y; Perera, N; Mendis, K; Jayathilaka, R; Dabare, UWe examine how beef consumption, trade openness, and cattle count influence beef production across 14 countries from 1993 to 2022 using panel and multiple linear regression analyses. The findings show that beef consumption and cattle count have positive effects, while trade openness has a mixed effect on beef production when analyzed individually. These effects vary across countries due to factors such as quality and safety standards, bovine diseases, export and import barriers, trade policies, land availability, pasture conditions, veterinary services, and biosecurity knowledge. Our study highlights the need for strategies to improve these factors and demonstrates how such strategies align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).Publication Open Access Explainable AI for public health surveillance: investigating the persistent crisis of intentional injury mortality (suicide and homicide) in the Americas(Nature Research, 2026-05-24) Kularathne, S; Rathnayake, N; Jayathilaka, R; Nakaoka, I; Hoshino, YIntentional injury mortality (IIM), comprising homicide and suicide, remains a critical public health crisis in the Americas, which not only has the highest regional homicide rates globally but is also the only region where suicide rates continue to rise. This study employs explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to examine the structural and temporal drivers of IIM across 25 countries, based on data from the previous two decades. Two complementary models were developed: a snapshot model based on contemporaneous socioeconomic indicators and a persistence-aware model incorporating lagged effects of predictors. Analyses were conducted across both income-level categories and geographic sub-regions to uncover context-specific patterns. While both models performed at acceptable levels in distinguishing immediate and enduring effects, persistence-aware models consistently outperformed snapshot models, thereby reframing IIM as a temporally sustained phenomenon. Feature importance, interpreted through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), highlighted the varying impacts of unemployment, inflation, corruption, and economic growth across income tiers and sub-regions. The results demonstrate that a combination of short-term shocks and the long-standing effects of governance and social factors drives IIM in the Americas. These findings underscore the need for dual-horizon policy approaches that address both immediate crises and structural root causes.Publication Embargo Economic growth, poverty and female employment on crime rates at global level(Springer Science and Business Media, 2026-12) Sivakumar, T; Raveendran, T; Jayathilaka, R; Wickramaarachchi, C; Jayasuriya, NThis study investigates the impact of female labour force participation, infant mortality rate, per capita gross domestic product, and urbanisation on crime rates globally and across different regions. Using panel regression techniques on secondary data collected from 106 countries over 34 years (1990-2023), the findings reveal that female labour force participation correlates positively with crime rates globally. The infant mortality rate is positively associated with crime in the European region. Conversely, per capita gross domestic product is negatively related to crime rates globally and in Asia, the Middle East and Europe. Urbanisation showed no significant association with crime rates globally or regionally. These insights may help government and law enforcement agencies formulate policies to reduce crime effectively.