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Publication Open Access Achieving near-zero carbon dioxide emissions from energy use: The case of Sri Lanka(Elsevier, 2023-07-04) Fernando, G.L; Liyanage, M.H; Anandarajah, G; Attalage, R. A; Karunaratne, SSignatories to the Paris Agreement are to achieve net zero Green House Gas (GHG) emissions during the half-century to pursue the efforts limiting global average temperature increase by 2 °C compared to pre-industrial levels. This study models ambitious to challenging scenarios involving energy demand and supply side actions for energy system transition toward net-zero for Sri Lanka. To analyze these scenarios a least cost optimization-based bottom-up type energy system model was developed from 2015 to 2050. A Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four countermeasure (CM) scenarios termed Plausible, Ambitious, Challenging, and Stringent were developed. Four different carbon tax rates were used to fathom the level of carbon tax needed to achieve net-zero emissions. The CM scenarios were formulated considering different technology options and policy measures such as the diffusion of efficient technologies, availability of renewable energy sources, use of cleaner fuels, the introduction of nuclear and carbon capture and storage technologies, and green hydrogen for power generation. The result of this study reveals that the stringent scenario which includes aggressive policy measures in both the energy supply and demand sectors, such as nuclear, and renewable energy for power generation, diffusion of efficient Enduse devices, fuel switching, including the introduction of electric cars, and increased share for public transport achieves the near carbon-neutral scenario at a carbon tax trajectory of 32 US$/tCO2 in 2020 and 562US$/tCO2 in 2050. The Net Energy Import Dependency (NEID) of the country decreases to 13 % in 2050 compared to that of the BAU scenario (65 %) under the near carbon neutral scenario, which is a positive sign from the energy security perspective.Publication Embargo Economy wide emission impacts of carbon and energy tax in electricity supply industry: A case study on Sri Lanka(Pergamon, 2007-07-01) Siriwardena, K; Wijayatunga, P. D.C; Fernando, W.J.L.S; Shrestha, R. M; Attalage, R. AThis paper presents the results and analysis of a study conducted with the objective of investigating the impact on economy wide emissions due to carbon and energy taxes levied within the electricity generation sector of Sri Lanka. This exercise is mainly based on the input–output table developed by the national planning department. An input–output decomposition technique is used to analyze four types of effects that contribute to the overall reduction in equivalent carbon, NOx and SO2 emissions. These four effects are: fuel mix effect (i.e. the change in emissions due to variation I fuel mix), structural effect (i.e. change in emissions due to changes in technological coefficients with taxes compared to that without taxes), final demand effect (i.e. the change in emissions associated with changes in final demand) and joint effect (i.e. the interactive effect between or among the fuel mix, structural and final demand effects). The polluting fuel sources and low energy efficiency generation technologies are less preferred under these tax regimes. Of the four effects, a change in fuel mix in thermal electricity generation and a change final demand for electricity were found to be the main contributors in achieving economy wide emission reductions. It was found in the analysis that a minimum of US$ 50/tC tax or US$ 1.0/MBtu of energy tax is required to have a significant impact on economy wide emissions in the Sri Lankan context. This translates into an overall increase in electricity generation cost of approximately USCts 0.9 kW−1 h−1 and USCts 0.6 kW−1 h−1 under the carbon and energy tax regimes, respectively. The reduction in emissions is also strongly coupled with the value of the price elasticity of electricity.
