Research Publications

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Subject: search.filters.subject.Revenue

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    PublicationOpen Access
    Development of SARIMA Model to Predict Quarterly Apparel and Textile Export Revenue in Sri Lanka
    (Faculty of Humanities and Sciences, SLIIT, 2023-11-01) Piyasiri, K. G. V.; Kasthuriarachchi, U. P; Nirmani, K. G. R; Tilakaratne, K.I.; Peiris, T. S. G
    Apparel and textile exports play a significant role in the Sri Lankan economy. The USA, UK, Italy, Germany, and Belgium are the main markets of apparel and textile exports in Sri Lanka. Advanced knowledge of export revenue is vital important for various reasons. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model of the type (1,1,0) x (0,1,1)4 was developed to model apparel and textile export revenue in Sri Lanka using quarterly data from year 2004 quarter 1 (2004Q1) to year 2021 quarter 4 (2021Q4). The errors of the model were found to be random and have a constant variance. The best fitted model was identified by comparing various statistical indicators, namely, the Akaike info criterion, Schwarz criterion, Hannan-Quinn criterion, Log likelihood criterion and volatility of six possible models decided based on sample ACF and PACF of the stationary series. The model was validated for data from year 2022Q1 to 2023Q1. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for the training data set and validation data set were 7.68% and 11.35% respectively. The predicted revenues (Mn USD) for the 2023Q2 to 2024Q4 are 1074.23, 1263.30, 1222.22, 1206.74, 1058.38, 1265.00 and 1216.58, respectively. The forecasted values for short-term periods can be effectively used by the decision makers for various activities. The model developed is easy to use and reliable.
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    PublicationEmbargo
    A Smart Aquaponic System for Enhancing The Revenue of Farmers in Sri Lanka
    (IEEE, 2022-10-19) Ekanayake, D; de Alwis, P; Harshana, P; Munasinghe, D; Jayakody, A; Gamage, N
    Sri Lanka's agricultural sector confronts serious challenges from fertilizer shortages and agriculture-related chemical scarcity. Innovations comparable to aquaponic systems may be offered to Sri Lankan farmers to overcome these difficulties using IoT and ML technology. This research scope is to implement a smart and secure aquaponic environment monitoring system to forecast plant and fish growth factors, provide Sri Lankan farmers with insights into the environment's behaviors, and take measures according to the predictions utilizing control mechanisms. In this research, more exact predictions have been generated by the Random Forest algorithm model rather than the LSTM model, and most of the investigated parameters given good accuracy according to the absolute mean error (Media TDS-1.95, Media pH-0.06, Media Temperature-0.49, Env. Temperature- 0.94, Env. Humidity-2.70) except the environment light intensity (64.11). The ML solution studied in this research paper would increase the quality of traditional agriculture in Sri Lanka for greater productivity and economic benefit.