Unravelling the impact of fossil fuel consumption and urbanisation on black carbon emissions in Africa

Abstract

Black carbon (BC) is a leading short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP) with profound health and climate impacts. This research investigates the impact of fossil fuel energy consumption (FFEC) and Urbanisation (URB) on black carbon emissions (BCE) in 34 African countries over the period 2005–2022. Data were analysed using a panel regression with fixed effects (x2 = 97.26, p < 0.001) to estimate the effects of each variable. Cross-country heterogeneity is further examined using country-level multiple linear regression (MLR) models. The fixed-effects model with clustered standard errors finds that fossil fuel energy consumption is weakly and negatively associated with Black carbon emissions. The average effect of countries in URB is not considered strong. In contrast, URB shows a positive and significant association with BCE in Eritrea, Ghana, Madagascar, Mauritius, Morocco, Niger, and Zimbabwewhile FFEC shows a positive and significant impact on BCE in Ghana and Zimbabwe. These results indicate that poorly planned urban sprawl overlaps with energy poverty, as it dramatically increases BCE. Policymakers should focus more on implementing cleaner cooking facilities, reliable low-carbon electricity generation, and eco-friendly transportation modes to achieve BCE neutrality.