A cross-category analysis of high impact low occurrence (HILO) disasters

Abstract

This paper explores six High Impact Low Occurrence (HILO) disasters, generating insights from five different categories associated with them, namely causes (geophysical, technological, biological, sociological), phases (preparedness, response, recovery), dimensions (socio-economics, governance, equity), sectors (health, education, infrastructure, economy) and national contexts with differing levels of economic development. The process involved the generation of a questionnaire, based on a literature review; and the subsequent analysis and discussion of the questionnaire responses made by six experts nominated by six academies of science in Asia. The findings highlight the limitations of probabilistic, frequency-based risk models for HILO disasters and instead emphasise the importance of scenario-based (worst-case) analyses; mechanisms that preserve inter‐generational knowledge, institutional continuity and community‐based early‐response networks; strengthening community resilience while ensuring equity; and making appropriate investments for increasing preparedness, if not through structural interventions, at least through sustained awareness programs and periodic drills. Theoretical contributions include arguments that institutional capacity, governance quality, and social resilience are more decisive determinants of HILO event outcomes than probabilistic risk analyses; and that effective preparedness depends more on anticipatory planning, scenario-based training and institutionalised memory rather than experiential learning; thus advancing HILO theory beyond event-centred and frequency-driven interpretations towards a more governance- and resilience-oriented understanding.