Evaluating Optimal Lockdown and Testing Strategies for COVID-19 using Multi-Agent Social Simulation

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has become a major concern due to its rapid spread throughout the world. We can observe some countries are successful in formulating effective strategies for managing the pandemic, while some are struggling. The research is based on the question of formulating effective policies for COVID-19 to reduce community transmission. While many countries are suffering from the pandemic, it is a critical issue that the policymakers should be concerned with formulating effective policies to address the problem. We use computational methods to foresee the future by creating a simulation model based on multi-agent and simulation methodology because it is not always possible to predict the future state of a complex adaptive system. The data are collected through a survey and the literature to calibrate the model parameters to build a constructive and realistic model. Once the model is constructed, the simulation results are compared with the real-world observations to validate the model. The implementation of the model follows an iterative process for improving the validity of the model. This paper presents the conceptual model of the system being investigated and its initial implementation, which needs to be calibrated further with empirical data before using it as a decision support tool.