Impact of climate variability on hydropower generation: A case study from Sri Lanka

Abstract

Hydropower accounts for 16.4% of world’s electricity demand. The key element in hydropower generation is the runoff and this runoff totally depends on the precipitation. However, the future climate is predicted to be debatable and can severely affect the water resources around the world. Therefore, a critical question to answer by the research community is, what would be the impact of climate change/variability on hydropower development? Hence, this paper aims to study the impingement of climate change on hydropower generation for Denawaka Ganga mini-hydropower located in Ratnapura district, Sri Lanka. Multi-year rainfall trend analysis for 30 years along with power generation trend study for 6 years have been carried out to evaluate the performance of the hydropower station under possible shifting precipitation pattern. Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator tests were used to culminate the trend analysis. Seasonal and monthly trend analysis did not render negative trends (except one rain gauge) in rainfall. However, positive rainfall trends were found in several rain gauging stations for several months. Power generation trend study showcased a decreasing trend in electricity generation for January and November. Nevertheless, the results elucidate that the catchment area is not under an intense threat due to the climate variability.