From short to long term: Dynamic analysis of FDI and net export in global regions

Abstract

It is crucial to examine the impact between foreign direct investment (FDI) and net exports (NE) for unveiling international trade dynamics, and the economic development of different geographical regions. It yields sharp insights into how FDI inflows, driven by theories such as backward linkage, export platform, and knowledge transfer, enhance a host country’s export capacity and contribute to economic growth. Moreover, studying the reciprocal linkages between FDI and NE helps recognise the aspects of domestic factors, such as productivity and the product life cycle, in attracting FDI and increasing export performance. Based on those theories, the study aims to ascertain the dynamic causality or correlation between FDI and NE across all regions with the utilisation of panel data gathered from 110 countries, considering the period from 2002 to 2020. The Wavelet coherence method is used to investigate the relationship between these variables across different frequencies and periods, followed by a Granger causality test. The findings demonstrated that FDI and NE have a significant relationship in most regions, with a bidirectional relationship between FDI and NE across all continents. The results could assist respective governments and policymakers in formulating policies related to FDI flows and offer insights into how a host country can attract more FDI and boost NE.