Mapping causal relationships between migration and economic growth: A visual and empirical approach

Abstract

The focus of this study is to identify whether causal relationships exist between migration and economic growth across countries in the Asian continent. Real GDP per capita and net migration per capita were used to measure economic growth and net migration, respectively. A dataset comprising panel data from 1994 to 2023, covering 41 countries, was utilised. The Bootstrap Dumitrescu and Hurlin Granger non-causality test was conducted for a continental analysis of Asia. Further, the Granger causality Wald test was undertaken for in-depth country-level analysis. The empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality in Asian continent, and Eastern, and Western Asian sub reigns while other sub reigns indicated no causality. Additionally, while majority of the countries indicated no causality, seven countries namely, Saudi Arabia, Turkmenistan, Viet Nam, Sri Lanka, Macao SAR China, Malaysia and Rep. Korea indicated unidirectional causalities. Based on these findings, implications were made for policymakers when developing economic policies that leverage the economic potential of net migration.