Exploring the growth direction: the impact of exchange rate and purchasing managers index on economic growth in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Numerous studies have been conducted, globally and locally, on the impact of the exchange rate on economic growth. In the local context, only a handful of research have investigated this area of study to determine the extent to which the Purchasing Managers’ Index infuence economic growth with the exchange rate, with limited research have been performed in Sri Lanka. This study explores the impact of exchange rate and Purchasing Managers’ Index on economic growth. Consequently, adopting an applied research methodology, the present study was based on secondary data published quarterly by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka reports and the Department of Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka from 2015 to 2021. The Vector autoregression model and Granger Causality Wald test were performed in this study. The empirical fndings highlighted that economic growth and Purchasing Managers’ Index have a signifcant negative impact on the economic growth, while the exchange rate had a signifcant positive impact on the economic growth. Furthermore, the exchange rate and the Purchasing Managers’ Index did not help to predict the exchange rate. The implications of the study demonstrate the relevance of the exchange rate and manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index as indicators of changes in overall economic growth activities at the macro level. The fndings will assist the Sri Lankan Government, policymakers, and foreign investors for efective decision making.