Research Papers - Dept of Information of Management
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Publication Embargo Focus on Middle East and Central Asia: rationale of IMF assistance seeking(Springer Science and Business, 2025-11-08) Wisenthige, K; Pathiranage, H.S.K; Jayathilaka, RThis study delves into the rationale behind the tendency of nations in the Middle East and Central Asia (MECA) to seek aid from the IMF. The IMF supports global financial stability, aiming to foster economic growth and prosperity across its member countries by promoting policies that encourage monetary cooperation and financial resilience. The study employs a conditional fixed-effects logit model, the analysis spans 22 years of data from twenty-five MECA countries to identify the factors driving these nations to seek IMF assistance. It focuses on six determinants: Current Account Balance (CAB), Inflation (INF), Corruption (CORR), General Government Net Lending and Borrowing (GGNLB), General Government Gross Debt (GGGD), and Gross Domestic Product Growth (GDPG). The fixed-effects logit shows that slower GDP growth raises the odds of an IMF programme, while short-run changes in corruption control and public debt ratios are not significant once country and year effects are absorbed. Inflation is weakly positive; the current account balance is still insignificant. A post-GFC and an income-group robustness check confirm the pattern. Furthermore, the study identifies Lebanon, a lower-middle-income country, as a leading example of seeking IMF assistance during the study period. Overall, this research highlights the importance of policymakers understanding the dynamics and rankings within the MECA region to effectively address economic challenges, provide financial support, and foster a more sustainable economic structure.Publication Open Access Alcohol Consumption and Stroke Mortality: Global Patterns, Risks and Public Health Implications(Springer, 2025-05-07) Kolonne, T; Mudalige, K; Dissanayaka, G; Rathnayake, K; Jayathilaka, R; Rajamanthri, L; Wickramaarachchi, CGlobally, stroke remains a leading cause of mortality and disability, while alcohol consumption continues to vary widely across regions, prompting concern over its health impacts. This study examines the association between different alcoholic beverages and stroke mortality, using secondary data from 1990 to 2020. Alcohol consumption and stroke death rates across 189 countries were categorized into five levels, from very high to very low, and averaged over two periods (1990–1999 and 2011–2020). Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA) was applied to assess relationships among four categorical variables. The findings indicate a significant association between very high alcohol consumption and increased stroke mortality, with eight countries showing elevated death rates. Conversely, moderate beer consumption was linked to reduced stroke mortality, suggesting nuanced effects based on beverage type and quantity. These insights offer a foundation for targeted public health policies and emphasize the need for further investigation into the mechanisms driving alcohol-related stroke risks.Publication Embargo Addressing Child Labour in SAARC: The Synergy of Education, Health and Economic Growth Towards SDGs(John Wiley and Sons, 2025-11-09) Muthugala, H; Magammana, T; Perera, A; Bandara, A; Jayathilaka, RChild labour remains a critical socio-economic challenge in the SAARC region, closely linked to sustainable development goals (SDGs). This study investigates the determinants of child labour by examining the roles of education, health and economic growth using a robust methodological framework. The analysis captures the non-linear country-specific relationships between these variables and child labour, employing advanced methodological approaches, including multiple polynomials, stepwise and simple polynomial regression. The findings reveal a complex interplay of factors, with each variable showing positive and negative effects on child labour in country-specific contexts. Improved access to education generally reduces child labour, but disparities in quality and affordability can have the opposite effect. Health improvements significantly lower child labour rates, yet unequal healthcare access perpetuates exploitation among vulnerable groups. Economic growth shows dual effects: it promotes adult employment and alleviates poverty, yet unregulated expansion in specific sectors can heighten the demand for child labour. This study makes a novel contribution by integrating socio-economic determinants with child labour within a regional framework, providing actionable insights while aligning with SDGs 3, 4, 8 and 8.7. Key policy recommendations include fostering regional collaboration, ensuring access to free education, enacting and enforcing new laws, improving healthcare infrastructure and promoting inclusive and sustainable economic growth. These measures align with global SDG commitments but aim to secure a brighter future for the region's children by achieving these goals by 2030.Publication Embargo Determinants of Firm Value in Frontier Markets: Evidence from a Panel Oprobit Analysis in Sri Lanka(Springer, 2025-09-01) Hettiarachchi, S; Kasthuriarachchi, U; Kokilakumar, S; Himaanthri, S; Jayathilaka, R; Peiris, SThis study explores the firm-level determinants of firm value in the context of a frontier market, using a panel dataset of 222 companies listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange from 2013 to 2024. Employing panel probit and ordered probit models, the analysis examines how capital structure, investment decisions, profitability, firm size, and sector classification influence firm value, measured across three distinct valuation tiers. The results reveal that the debt-to-equity ratio positively impacts firm value, especially during transitions from low to medium categories, supporting the relevance of the Trade-Off Theory. Profitability and firm size are also found to significantly increase the probability of achieving higher firm valuations. However, the price-to-earnings ratio displays negligible predictive power in this context. Sectoral analysis indicates that non-financial firms demonstrate stronger valuation potential than financial firms, likely due to reduced regulatory constraints and greater strategic flexibility. These findings contribute to the limited empirical literature on frontier markets by highlighting key drivers of corporate value and providing comparative insights. The study offers practical implications for policymakers, investors, and corporate managers aiming to enhance firm value through financial structure optimisation, strategic growth initiatives, and regulatory improvements that promote market confidence and transparency.Publication Open Access Renewable realities: Charting a greener course for the world's high-emitting nations through information technology insights(John Wiley, 2025-04) Ranthilake, T; Caldera, Y; Senevirathna, D; Gunawardana, H; Jayathilaka, R; Peter, SCarbon dioxide (CO₂) is the most abundant gas among all greenhouse gas emissions, severely impacting global warming. This study examines the impact of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), population dynamics, Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), and Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) on CO₂ on a global scale, representing 38 countries selected using the Pareto principle. Results from the panel regression model indicate a significantly positive relationship between ICT, PGDP, and population on CO₂ emissions. In contrast, REC exhibits a negative relationship. The Multiple Linear Regression model shows that an increase in PGDP leads to higher CO₂ emissions, except in Uzbekistan. ICT increases emissions in the United States, Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Egypt. Population growth raises emissions, except in the United States, France, Germany, and Russia. REC reduces CO₂ emissions in most countries. Policymakers in individual countries can gain a precise understanding of how these variables impact CO₂ emissions, enabling them to mitigate the risks associated with global warmingPublication Embargo Unveiling the Economic Determinants of Child Labour in Africa: A Comprehensive Study of 37 Countries(Springer Science and Business Media, 2025-03-10) Muthugala, H; Magammana, T; Bandara, A; Perera, A; Jayathilaka, RThis study investigates the impact of unemployment, household income and expenditure, globalisation, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on child labour across 37 African countries from 2010 to 2021, employing panel and multiple linear regression models. The findings reveal diverse impacts: rising unemployment significantly increased child labour in countries like Ethiopia and Niger, while in Cameroon and Kenya, it had a negative effect. Globalisation’s influence varied, strongly reducing child labour in Ghana but exacerbating it in Burundi. Household income and expenditure generally reduced child labour, particularly in Ethiopia and Zambia. The effect of FDI was also mixed, decreasing child labour in Madagascar but increasing it in countries with weaker governance. These insights underscore the necessity for tailored, country-specific policies that consider local economic conditions and governance quality. Future efforts to combat child labour must focus on developing sustainable solutions that address these complex dynamics.Publication Embargo Regional emissions and climate impact: analysing carbon dioxide and methane effects on temperature and sea levels in Asia(Springer, 2025-10-26) Punchihewa, C; Liyanage, S; Badurdeen, S; Gunaratne, T; Jayathilaka, RClimate change and its impacts are felt worldwide, and with increasing anthropogenic emissions, many international efforts are centred around mitigating emissions and meeting climate targets. The Asian continent has made the most significant contributions to global emissions, with China, India, and Russia generating the largest share of emissions. Given Asia’s vulnerability to climate change, the study addresses the literature gap by examining the regional impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and methane (CH4) emissions on mean surface temperature (MST) and the effects of MST on mean sea levels (MSL) through panel regressions focusing on the period from 1993 to 2020, considering 45 countries. The study found that regional CO2 and CH4 emissions had a significant positive impact on MST at a 1% significance level, and MST had a positive impact on MSL at a 5% level of significance. The study has focused on continental sources of anthropogenic emissions and applied econometrics over traditional climate models to enable a more nuanced, granular, region-specific understanding of emission impacts for targeted policy development. It has proposed targeted policy measures to mitigate emissions, highlighting the importance of regional collaboration among Asian countries in achieving emission reduction goals.Publication Embargo Comparative Determinants of Global Competitiveness: Governance, Social Progress, and Economic Trade-Offs(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2025-03-31) Kalansuriya, N; Jayathilaka, RThis study analyses the determinants of global competitiveness in 2018 and 2023, focusing on governance, social progress, economic dynamics, sustainability, and human development. Using an Ordered Probit Regression model, countries are classified into low, middle, and high competitiveness tiers, enabling a structured assessment of how these factors influence rankings over time. The results indicate that reducing corruption and improving social progress are key to enhancing competitiveness across all tiers, as governance quality and human capital investment significantly impact economic advancement. Environmental performance and trade openness present trade-offs: while they support long-term growth, they impose short-term costs, particularly in highly competitive economies. Human development emerges as a consistent driver of upward mobility, emphasising the importance of sustained investment in education and healthcare. This study contributes uniquely by providing a two-year comparative analysis and employing an Ordered Probit Model to assess competitiveness, offering deeper insights into how countries transition between tiers. The findings highlight the need for tailored policy approaches: low-tier nations should prioritise institutional reforms, middle-tier economies should focus on innovation-driven growth, and advanced economies must balance environmental policies with economic sustainability. These insights provide valuable guidance for policymakers navigating global economic transitions.Publication Open Access Poultry consumption and sustainability: Assessing economic, trade, and climatic impacts across diverse income economies(Elsevier Ltd, 2025-10-31) Sammani, I; Yeshini, B; Siriwardhane, S; Pasindu, K; Jayathilaka, RPoultry consumption has increased significantly throughout the world, driven by shifts in economic, trade and dietary factors. This study explores the impact of per capita gross domestic product, trade openness, average surface temperature, beef, pork, sheep, goat, and other meat consumption on poultry consumption in the top 10 countries from each income group. Secondary data for 40 countries were incorporated from Our World in Data, from 2000 to 2021. The Panel regression technique was conducted, which applied Pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effect, and random effect models. The findings indicated that per capita gross domestic product and average surface temperature significantly impact poultry consumption. In contrast, trade openness and sheep and goat consumption significantly negatively impact all 40 countries. In high-income countries, trade openness, average surface temperature, and pork consumption have a positive effect, while other meat consumption negatively impacts poultry consumption. Average surface temperature has shown a notable positive impact, whereas trade openness negatively impacts poultry consumption in upper-middle-income countries. Pork consumption has shown a considerable positive impact in lower-middle and low-income countries.Publication Open Access Life expectancy economic growth and resilience in resource constrained economies in the context of COVID-19 and the sustainable development goals(Springer Nature, 2025-11-12) Samadhini, D; Lakshan, P; Nirmani, P; Dulmin, L; Jayathilaka, RThis study contributes to the sustainable development discourse by examining the interplay between health (life expectancy) and economic growth (EG), which is central to Sustainable Development Goals 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). By investigating the dynamic relationship between Life Expectancy (LE) and EG, measured by LE rates and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), in 51 low and lower-middle-income countries from 1990 to 2023, with a particular focus on the disruptive impact of COVID-19. Employing Wavelet Coherence analysis, Granger Causality, and Johansen Cointegration tests, this study reveals critical relationships and identifies both short and long-term equilibrium linkages within health and economic systems. By explicitly situating the findings within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the study highlights how improvements in population health (SDG 3) and economic resilience (SDG 8) can be mutually reinforcing. It further provides evidence to guide policy interventions and sustainable development strategies. Further results indicate that, while the pandemic weakened short-term causalities, long-term cointegration remains intact, underscoring the need for integrated strategies that simultaneously strengthen health systems and promote inclusive EG. These insights provide critical guidelines for policymakers in resource-constrained contexts seeking to progress toward the SDGs and enhance resilience against future economic shocks. The findings provide insight into how health-system strengthening, and sustainable economic policies can jointly advance progress toward the SDGs.