Research Publications
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Publication Embargo Globalisation and CO 2 Emissions: Evidence From theWorld’s Largest Emitters(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026-07-01) Ansar, A; Illiyas, O; Hussain, M; Hansani, C; Jayathilaka, R; Chandrasiri, RThe study examines the predictive relationship between political, economic, and social dimensions of globalisation and CO2 emissions across the world's largest emitting countries using a country-level VAR Granger causality framework. Political globalisation Granger-causes emissions in Australia and Japan, whereas emissions exhibit predictive precedence towards political globalisation in the United States. Economic globalisation demonstrates predictive bidirectional causal evidence with emissions in India and Malaysia, while social globalisation exhibits a predictive relationship with emissions in Canada, Japan, and Mexico. The findings highlight substantial heterogeneity in the predictive relationships between dimensions of globalisation and CO2 emissions across countries, reflecting differences in governance structures, industrial composition, and energy dependency patterns. Unlike panel-average estimation approaches, the country-level framework allows the identification of heterogeneous country-specific temporal dynamics across the major emitters. Nevertheless, the findings should be interpreted as a predictive relationship rather than definitive structural causation and may remain sensitive to omitted variables and long-run equilibrium dynamics which are not captured within the short-term VAR framework. The study contributes to additional country-specific evidence relevant to climate governance and sustainability-orientated policy discussions among major emitting economies.Publication Embargo Regional emissions and climate impact: analysing carbon dioxide and methane effects on temperature and sea levels in Asia(Springer, 2025-10-26) Punchihewa, C; Liyanage, S; Badurdeen, S; Gunaratne, T; Jayathilaka, RClimate change and its impacts are felt worldwide, and with increasing anthropogenic emissions, many international efforts are centred around mitigating emissions and meeting climate targets. The Asian continent has made the most significant contributions to global emissions, with China, India, and Russia generating the largest share of emissions. Given Asia’s vulnerability to climate change, the study addresses the literature gap by examining the regional impact of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and methane (CH4) emissions on mean surface temperature (MST) and the effects of MST on mean sea levels (MSL) through panel regressions focusing on the period from 1993 to 2020, considering 45 countries. The study found that regional CO2 and CH4 emissions had a significant positive impact on MST at a 1% significance level, and MST had a positive impact on MSL at a 5% level of significance. The study has focused on continental sources of anthropogenic emissions and applied econometrics over traditional climate models to enable a more nuanced, granular, region-specific understanding of emission impacts for targeted policy development. It has proposed targeted policy measures to mitigate emissions, highlighting the importance of regional collaboration among Asian countries in achieving emission reduction goals.Publication Open Access Carbon emissions and global R&D patterns: a wavelet coherence perspective(Springer, 2025-03-23) Senevirathna, D; Gunawardana, H; Ranthilake, T; Caldera, Y; Jayathilaka, R; Rathnayake, N; Peter, SThis study examines the causality between Research and Development (R&D) and Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the global level, utilising data gathered from 2000 to 2020 across various countries categorised as developed, developing, economies in transition, and least-developed. The data collected for the study are analysed using the Wavelet coherence methodology. The findings reveal both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between the variables, which have evolved over time. Globally, a bidirectional relationship is present in the short-term, no causality in the medium-term and unidirectional causality in the long-term. Developed countries exhibit a two-way causality in the short-term, while no causality exists in the medium-term and long-term. Developing countries show a bidirectional relationship across all time frequencies. In economies in transition, a bidirectional relationship appears towards the end of the period over the short, medium, and long-term. The least developed countries show no causality in the short and long-term, but a one-way causality in the medium-term. Governments and the policymakers can implement environmental policies to mitigate carbon emissions through R&D. The findings suggest targeted and strategic strategies to enhance the impact of R&D on emissions reduction. Policymakers can use this analysis to prioritize funding for clean energy innovations, establish incentives for low-tech technologies, and promote international cooperation in green technology research. Additionally, focusing on these carbon mechanisms and aligning R&D efforts to support development goals can increase the effectiveness of climate policies, ensuring a balance between economic growth and environmental sustainability.