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Subject: search.filters.subject.Economic growth

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    PublicationOpen Access
    Explainable AI for public health surveillance: investigating the persistent crisis of intentional injury mortality (suicide and homicide) in the Americas
    (Nature Research, 2026-05-24) Kularathne, S; Rathnayake, N; Jayathilaka, R; Nakaoka, I; Hoshino, Y
    Intentional injury mortality (IIM), comprising homicide and suicide, remains a critical public health crisis in the Americas, which not only has the highest regional homicide rates globally but is also the only region where suicide rates continue to rise. This study employs explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to examine the structural and temporal drivers of IIM across 25 countries, based on data from the previous two decades. Two complementary models were developed: a snapshot model based on contemporaneous socioeconomic indicators and a persistence-aware model incorporating lagged effects of predictors. Analyses were conducted across both income-level categories and geographic sub-regions to uncover context-specific patterns. While both models performed at acceptable levels in distinguishing immediate and enduring effects, persistence-aware models consistently outperformed snapshot models, thereby reframing IIM as a temporally sustained phenomenon. Feature importance, interpreted through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), highlighted the varying impacts of unemployment, inflation, corruption, and economic growth across income tiers and sub-regions. The results demonstrate that a combination of short-term shocks and the long-standing effects of governance and social factors drives IIM in the Americas. These findings underscore the need for dual-horizon policy approaches that address both immediate crises and structural root causes.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Global economic uncertainty shocks and macroeconomic dynamics before and after COVID-19: Evidence from Africa and the Americas
    (Elsevier Inc., 2026-04-03) Madurawala, R; Navamohan, P; Gamage, D; Hansika, S; Jayathilaka, R
    Global economic uncertainty has become a central driver of macroeconomic instability, particularly during large-scale crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examines how global uncertainty shocks affect key macroeconomic variables, particularly suicide rates, economic growth, unemployment, and trade openness across 62 countries in Africa, South America, and North America over the period of 2004–2023 as the countries in these regions exhibit the highest uncertainty post-pandemic. Utilising the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment, the analysis distinguishes between pre- and post-pandemic uncertainty-socioeconomic dynamics to assess the bidirectional and cointegrating relationships across regions. The study employs Multiple Linear Regression to capture short-term macroeconomic responses and panel and country-level cointegration techniques to identify long-run relationships between economic uncertainty and macroeconomic variables. Global uncertainty is proxied using the World Uncertainty Index, which captures broad policy, geopolitical, and crisis-related uncertainty affecting expectations and real economic activity. Unlike, existing studies which reveal insights in a particular region or country, the current findings uncover bi-directional relationships in 21 countries post-pandemic, with notable relationships in Algeria, Botswana, Gabon, Guinea, Madagascar, Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Bolivia, Paraguay. Moreover, long-run cointegration between uncertainty and macroeconomic indicators strengthens in the post-COVID-19 period, particularly in countries of Africa and North America. By analysing countries in the highest uncertainty regions the study contributes to the international macroeconomics literature by providing new evidence on how global uncertainty shocks reshape macroeconomic dynamics across regions with heterogeneous economic structures, offering important implications for macroeconomic stabilisation in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Five decades of globalisation and growth: a cross-country causal analysis of low-income economies
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2026-01-19) Rathnayake, D; Sandanayaka, I; Wijesuriya, P; Athalage, D; Jayathilaka, R
    Comprehending the dynamic between globalisation and economic growth in low-income nations is vital to understanding how they navigate growth trajectories whilst addressing global concerns. This study examined the nexus between globalisation and its financial, social, and political facets in relation to growth in fourteen lowincome nations. The analysis spanned over five decades and the Wavelet Coherence and Granger Causality methodologies. The findings revealed a bidirectional causal relationship between globalisation and growth in Rwanda, unidirectional causal flows in Burundi, Sierra Leone, Sudan, and Uganda. A bidirectional relationship between economic integration and growth was identified in Burkina Faso. Possible policy actions aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals have been developed, focusing on the country-specific dynamics of each nation. These policy recommendations comprise introducing incentives for foreign investments in Rwanda and liberalising trade in Burkina Faso to reinforce economic globalisation. The study also recommends the expansion of digital infrastructure and global educational avenues in Burundi and Uganda to strengthen social integration, and the reinforcement of governance mechanisms in Chad and Togo to encourage political integration. This study contributes to the globalisation-growth literature by offering time-sensitive insights into the growth trajectories of low-income economies.