REGULARITIES AND PATTERNS OF CONSTRUCTION COSTS UPON POLITICAL EVENTS

Abstract

Though the market prices change before and after political events were often speculated, if such changes could be systematically accounted for in construction cost forecasting was unknown. This study aimed to bridge this knowledge gap by identifying the regularities and patterns of the construction costs upon political events. A decade of period was selected in which the scope of the study started in 2010. Time series analysis was used along with regression analysis, assuming a linear relationship between construction costs and time. After a comprehensive literature review, CIDA construction cost indices were chosen as the most appropriate cost representation for the local context, and these were taken as the dependent variables. All indices were plotted in diagrams and long-term trends were observed, then indices were carried for further analysis of cycles. Major political events were collected through a document survey and the findings were plotted on the time series analysis output. It was noticed that in 2013 indices were changed mostly, where three provincial elections were held, and some more pattern changes had occurred close to the local government elections which took place in 2011 and 2018. The study concluded that there is neither pattern nor regularity in construction costs upon political events where it cannot be systematically incorporated into construction cost forecasting. However, the findings did not deny the impact of political events on construction costs, and novel areas were found where further explorations are required.