FTA Negotiations in Asia-Pacific Region: An Empirical Study on the Determinants FTA among the Bilateral Trading Partners

Abstract

Historically, Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) have been, and will continue to be, an important gateway for improving world trade, given that the world trading system is substantially hampered by man-made barriers. This paper examines into the deterministic key factors and their relative importance for FTA negotiations among the bilateral trading partners using a Probit Model based on 9,178 nonzero trading pairs having 705 active and operational bilateral FTAs. Based on the estimated model, the study projects the future potentiality of FTA negotiations in the Asia-Pacific region. The study works on eleven hypotheses regarding the dependency of FTA on the economic and non-economic characteristics of the bilateral trading partners and the findings support 9 out of the 11 hypotheses. The likelihood of forming an FTA between a pair of countries is higher: (1) the closer in distance the two trading partners are; (2) less remote a natural pair is relative to other countries; (3) economically larger the trading partners are; (4) more similar the trading partners are in economic size; (5) larger the differences in relative factor intensity are; (6) greater is the political stability; (7) more discontinued than connected by a common border; (8) for countries having higher import tariffs in the past; and (9) larger the number of FTAs the neighborhood countries have already signed up. These factors have economically important and statistically significant effects on the probability to form an FTA. However, this study rejected the null favouring alternative that (10) sharing a common language or having colonial relationships has no influence on negotiating for an FTA. Furthermore, our findings rejected (11) the null that countries having a higher degree of export/import intensity tend to form FTAs leading to the conclusion that the past trade or existing level of trade is not a good motivation to form FTAs. Based on the estimated model the study shows that the Asia-Pacific region is well beyond the South Asian region in terms of FTA potentiality, but the European region shows more potentiality than Asia-Pacific and any other region in the world.