Restoring life expectancy in low-income countries: the combined impact of COVID-19, health expenditure, GDP, and child mortality

Abstract

Background: Life expectancy is a vital indicator of a country’s health and progress. Low-income countries face uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, driven by health expenditure levels, concerns over rising child mortality rates, and decreasing per capita income. These factors challenge life expectancy and demand urgent attention. This study aims to identify patterns, challenges, and opportunities to improve life expectancy in these countries through better health policies and resource allocation. Methods: The research investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, health expenditure, per capita income, and child mortality rates on life expectancy in low-income countries. By examining 22 years of data from 20 countries, using a comprehensive dataset from the Our World in Data database, this study employs panel regression and time series analysis to explore how these factors influence life expectancy. Results: The findings indicate a significant negative effect of COVID-19 on life expectancy, while health expenditure and per capita income show a positive impact. Conversely, child mortality rates exert a negative effect on life expectancy in low-income countries. Conclusion: This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by analysing how COVID-19, health expenditure, per capita income, and child mortality collectively affect life expectancy in low-income countries. The insights gained may inform policymakers and health consultants about the need for targeted interventions, prioritising healthcare investment and child health. By addressing these critical areas, it may be possible to improve life expectancy and overall health outcomes, thus contributing to global health equity. © The Author(s) 2025.