Forecasting weekly dengue incidence in Sri Lanka: Modified Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average modeling approach

Abstract

Dengue poses a significant and multifaceted public health challenge in Sri Lanka, encompassing both preventive and curative aspects. Accurate dengue incidence forecasting is pivotal for effective surveillance and disease control. To address this, we developed an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model tailored for predicting weekly dengue cases in the Colombo district. The modeling process drew on comprehensive weekly dengue fever data from the Weekly Epidemiological Reports (WER), spanning January 2015 to August 2020. Following rigorous model selection, the ARIMA (2,1,0) model, augmented with an autoregressive component (AR) of order 16, emerged as the best-fitted model. It underwent initial calibration and fine-tuning using data from January 2015 to August 2020, and was validated against independent 2000 data. Selection criteria included parameter significance, the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Schwarz Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC). Importantly, the residuals of the ARIMA model conformed to the assumptions of randomness, constant variance, and normality affirming its suitability. The forecasts closely matched observed dengue incidence, offering a valuable tool for public health decision-makers. However, an increased percentage error was noted in late 2020, likely attributed to factors including potential underreporting due to COVID-19-related disruptions amid rising dengue cases. This research contributes to the critical task of managing dengue outbreaks and underscores the dynamic challenges posed by external influences on disease surveillance.