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    Economic and Environmental Drivers of Carbon Emissions in Asia: Granger Causality Insights From Foreign Investment, Inflation, and Ecological Footprint
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2026) Nizar, S; Natkunarasa, A; Divyanjali, H; Jayathilaka, R
    Rising carbon emissions cause critical challenges to sustainable development, particularly in Asia which accounts for a substan-tial share of global emissions. The study investigates the short-run causal relationships between foreign direct investment, infla-tion, ecological footprint, and carbon emissions across 27 Asian countries (final analytical sample) over the period 2000–2023.Utilizing country-specific VAR-based Granger causality analysis, the study captures heterogeneous sustainability economic in-teractions without imposing uniform panel assumptions. The results reveal diverse unidirectional and bidirectional causalitypatterns, highlighting how macroeconomic pressures and environmental constraints jointly shape emission outcomes. Thesefindings underscore the importance of sustainable investment, energy price management, and institutional capacity in sup-porting sustainable communities and enhancing knowledge-driven sustainability transitions. From a managerial and policyperspective, the results provide actionable insights aligning with investment decisions, macroeconomic management, and envi-ronmental governance with the sustainable development goals, particularly SDG 13 (climate action), while recognizing country-specific development pathways.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Understanding the interplay of GDP, renewable, and non-renewable energy on carbon emissions: Global wavelet coherence and Granger causality analysis
    (PLoS ONE, 2024-09-19) Caldera, Y; Ranthilake, T; Gunawardana, H; Senevirathna, D; Jayathilaka, R; Rathnayake, N; Peter, S
    This study examines the causality of Per Capita Gross Domestic Production (PGDP), Renewable Energy Consumption (REC), and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption (NREC) on Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at the global level utilising data gathered from 1995 to 2020 across various countries categorised based on income levels as High, Low, Upper Middle and Lower Middle and analysed through wavelet coherence. The findings reveal both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between the variables which have evolved. Globally, a bi-directional relationship is observed with a positive correlation between PGDP and NREC and in contrast, a negative correlation with REC. Furthermore, the analysis highlights varying causalities between CO2 emissions and PGDP, except for high-income and lower-middle-income country categories, all other shows one-way causality in different periods in the short term. Moreover, CO2 and REC, show unidirectional causality throughout the short-term, exceptionally medium & long term have both unidirectional and bidirectional causalities across all country categories with a positive correlation. In contrast, CO2 and NREC depict similar causalities to REC, however, with a negative correlation. A cross-country analysis was performed between CO2 and PGDP, CO2 and REC, and CO2 and NREC using Granger causality which shows mixed relationships. The findings hold significant implications for policymakers, providing valuable insights into the trade-offs between economic growth, energy consumption, and carbon emissions.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Nexus between carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth: Evidence from global economies
    (PLOS ONE, 2023-06-23) Dissanayake, H; Perera, N; Abeykoon, S; Samson, D; Jayathilaka, R; Jayasinghe, M; Yapa, S
    Renewable energy holds a remarkable role in clean energy adaptation due to the much lower carbon footprint it releases compared to other fossil fuels. It also has a positive impact by slowing down the rate of climate change. The study has examined the links between renewable and non-renewable energy use, CO2 emissions and economic growth in developed, developing, and LDCs and Economies in Transition between 1990 and 2019 in 152 countries. Granger-causality has been used as the methodology to investigate the link between the variables. The findings of the existing studies on the relationship between the consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy sources and economic growth are inconsistent, indicating that there may or may not be a relationship between the two factors. Apart from having a few empirical studies so far have examined the link between the above-mentioned variables, analysis has yet to encompass all the regions in the four sub-groups discussed above. The results indicated that no Granger-causal relationship exists between GDP and REC outside of Economies in Transition. Additionally, the GDP and CO2 of all countries have a one-way relationship. Nevertheless, research indicates that GDP and CO2 have a bi-directional link in Economies in Transition, a uni-directional relationship in developing countries, and no meaningful association in developed and LDCs. Therefore, it is essential to emphasise actions to lower CO2 emissions and develop renewable energy while also stimulating the economy. Ultimately, more nations should choose renewable energy sources to build a more sustainable future.