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Start date: 2020Subject: search.filters.subject.Granger causality

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Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Life expectancy economic growth and resilience in resource constrained economies in the context of COVID-19 and the sustainable development goals
    (Springer Nature, 2025-11-12) Samadhini, D; Lakshan, P; Nirmani, P; Dulmin, L; Jayathilaka, R
    This study contributes to the sustainable development discourse by examining the interplay between health (life expectancy) and economic growth (EG), which is central to Sustainable Development Goals 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). By investigating the dynamic relationship between Life Expectancy (LE) and EG, measured by LE rates and Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (PGDP), in 51 low and lower-middle-income countries from 1990 to 2023, with a particular focus on the disruptive impact of COVID-19. Employing Wavelet Coherence analysis, Granger Causality, and Johansen Cointegration tests, this study reveals critical relationships and identifies both short and long-term equilibrium linkages within health and economic systems. By explicitly situating the findings within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the study highlights how improvements in population health (SDG 3) and economic resilience (SDG 8) can be mutually reinforcing. It further provides evidence to guide policy interventions and sustainable development strategies. Further results indicate that, while the pandemic weakened short-term causalities, long-term cointegration remains intact, underscoring the need for integrated strategies that simultaneously strengthen health systems and promote inclusive EG. These insights provide critical guidelines for policymakers in resource-constrained contexts seeking to progress toward the SDGs and enhance resilience against future economic shocks. The findings provide insight into how health-system strengthening, and sustainable economic policies can jointly advance progress toward the SDGs.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Brain drain or economic gain? Untangling the global migration-growth puzzle through causality and time-frequency lenses
    (Elsevier, 2025-07-22) Dissanayake, P.; Chloe, L; Azmi, Y; Landersz, S; Jayathilaka, R
    This study investigates the complex causal relationships between net migration and economic growth at the global, income group, and country levels, framing these dynamics within the evolving landscape of global economic integration and disparities, thereby addressing the enduring “brain drain or economic gain” debate. The analysis is conducted employing the latest available panel data from 1990 to 2023 for 154 countries. Additionally, several advance analytical techniques including Juodis, Karavias and Sarafidis non-causality test and Wavelet Transform Coherence is utilised to investigate relationships across multiple scales and time frequencies. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no prior research has examined these dynamics using these methods. Additionally, a novel visualisation technique called Lucius Jesper Chloe heatmap, was utilised to depict the Granger causalities. The findings confirm a relationship between migration and economic growth on a global scale. Further analysis reveals bidirectional and unidirectional relationships within income groups and countries. Finally, implications are made for policymakers to develop economic policies that leverage the economic potential of migration and vice versa.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Ageing affecting the Americas?: exploring the growth direction: the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in the American context
    (Springer Nature, 2025-02-13) Jayawardhana, T.; Jayathilaka, R; Karadanaarachchi, R.; Nimnadi, T; Anuththara, S
    The main aim of this study is to explore the relationship between the elderly population and economic growth in 25 North and South American countries use annual secondary data from 1961 to 2021. Instead of focusing on the conditional mean, this study tests for Granger causality in the entire conditional distribution of the elderly population and economic growth through wavelet coherence analysis. The study fndings indicated a unidirectional Granger causality running from per capita gross domestic product (GDP) to the elderly population for Bolivia, Colombia, Guyana, Peru and Puerto Rico and also from elderly population to per capita GDP for Costa Rica, Ecuador and Honduras. However, there is no causal relationship between the elderly population and economic growth for the rest of the countries. Wavelet coherence analysis depicted that economic growth positively led the elderly population in North America during the early 21st century. Furthermore, economic growth had been negatively leading the elderly population in South America throughout the period under consideration. This empirical study shows that policymakers of these economies need to analyse the transformation in the elderly population-economic growth causality robustness throughout the year when devising policies
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Evaluating the synergy: anxiety prevalence and alcohol consumption patterns in high-income countries using Granger causality analysis
    (Springer Nature, 2025-01-20) Senarathne, B; Palliyaguru, D; Oshini, A; Gamage, J; Jayathilaka, R; Rajamanthri, L; Wickramarachchi, C
    Background Alcohol consumption frequently experiences episodes of severe anxiety. This study set out to explore the long-term efects of alcohol consumption on anxiety, revealing insights into how alcohol consumption uniquely impact anxiety, aiming to inform mental health and public health approaches. This research paper explores the complex relationship between the prevalence of anxiety and the consumption patterns of wine, beer, and spirits across ffty-two high-income countries with a continental analysis. Method By employing signifcant secondary data taken from the World Health Organization and Our World in Data online databases and covering the period from 1990 to 2019, this study seeks to explore various causality relationships over this period. Its primary objective is to fll the empirical gap in existing research by using Granger causality analysis to reveal the dynamic relationships between the consumption of alcohol and the prevalence of anxiety. This study endeavours to provide a continental analysis of the high-income countries, which allows for including a comprehensive viewpoint in the context of a single investigation. Results The fndings demonstrate a variety of patterns of causality in alcohol consumption and anxiety prevalence in a one-way causal relationship across specifc continents, a bidirectional relationship in others, and no apparent causal relationship in several countries. Conclusion The inference made from the study’s results goes beyond scholarly curiosity; it establishes the foundation for further investigations and the development of customised policies aimed at reducing the mutually reinforcing dangers of alcohol consumption and anxiety disorders.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    The interconnectedness of energy consumption with economic growth: A granger causality analysis
    (2024-09-15) Perera, N; Dissanayake, H; Samson, D; Abeykoon, S; Jayathilaka, R; Jayasinghe, M; Yapa, S
    In considering today's energy challenges, the link between the usage of renewable and non-renewable energy sources and economic growth has gained substantial policy attention. This research examines the complex relationship between these three variables to understand how non-renewable energy consumption and renewable energy consumption interact and what that means for economic growth. This study uses the Granger causality approach to explore the relationships between non-renewable energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and economic development. It draws on a comprehensive dataset from the Word Bank database, including 152 nations from 1990 to 2019. The analysis is further disaggregated by four subgroups of countries; least developed, developed, transitional economies and developing countries. The result of this study provides valuable empirical evidence of uni-directional causality running from renewable energy consumption to economic growth and non-renewable energy consumption to economic growth in transitional economies. Furthermore, policymakers should focus on both variables when making decisions because the results show that energy consumption and economic growth are interconnected. Implementing global energy efficiency standards, reducing fossil fuel usage, and adopting regulatory measures are all viable policies for limiting adverse effects on the environment while encouraging economic development.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Cheers to anxiety: Granger causality insights on alcohol consumption patterns across 13 South American countries
    (Springer, 2024-09-30) Palliyaguru, D; Senarathne, B; Jayathilaka, R; Rajamanthri, L; Wickramarachchi, C
    Background The relationship between alcohol consumption and mental health is complex; drinking may exacerbate anxiety, and in turn, anxiety can lead to excessive drinking. This study explores the relationship between alcohol consumption patterns including wine, beer, and spirits, and anxiety prevalence in selected 13 South American nations. Methods This study utilises secondary data spanning 29 years from 1991 to 2019 obtained from the Our World in Data database. It investigates the causal link between the prevalence of anxiety and alcohol consumption in the selected countries using the Granger causality test. Results Anxiety was found to have a unidirectional effect on wine and beer consumption in Chile, Suriname, Uruguay, and Trinidad and Tobago. Additionally, drinking alcohol consumption appears to impact anxiety levels in Brazil. Argentina demonstrates a bidirectional relationship between anxiety and all three types of alcohol consumption, with similar patterns observed in Brazil (wine and beer), Chile (spirits), and Paraguay (spirits). Conclusion No significant causal relationships for alcohol consumption patterns were found in other nations. The identified Granger causal links follow four distinct directions in this study. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, governments, and international investors for informed decision-making regarding regulation and policy tools.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    A FLOURISHING OR FALTERING ECONOMY: UNEMPLOYMENT IMPACTING SRI LANKAN ECONOMIC GROWTH
    (Sri Lanka Journal of Economic Research, 2023-02-03) Atigala, P; Maduwanthi, T; Gunathilake, V; Sathsarani, S; Jayathilaka, R
    The primary goal of any economy is to achieve long-term economic growth while maintaining a stable rate of unemployment, which is a macroeconomic factor. Moreover, when unemployment rises, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) falls short of potential GDP. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of unemployment on the economic growth of Sri Lanka. By using data from the first quarter (Q1) of 2000 to the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2021 and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality are applied to analyse the impact of unemployment on economic growth. The findings indicates that there is a unidirectional causality between unemployment and economic growth, and that there is a long run relationship between these two variables, with both long-term and short-term negative impacts on economic growth in Sri Lanka. Macroeconomic policies need to be formulated to sustain the unemployment rate in line with the current economic realities of Sri Lanka for sustainable economic growth and significant contribution to the creation of new jobs and the expansion of existing employment in Sri Lanka.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Tourism and economic growth: A global study on Granger causality and wavelet coherence
    (PLoS ONE, 2022-09-12) Wijesekara, C; Tittagalla, C; Jayathilaka, A; Ilukpotha, U; Jayathilaka, R; Jayasinghe, P
    This paper empirically investigates the relationship between tourism and economic growth by using a panel data cointegration test, Granger causality test and Wavelet coherence analysis at the global level. This analysis examines 105 nations utilising panel data from 2003 to 2020. The findings indicates that in most regions, tourism contributes significantly to economic growth and vice versa. Developing trade across most of the regions appears to be a major influencer in the study, as a bidirectional association exists between trade openness and economic growth. Additionally, all regions other than the American region showed a one-way association between gross capital formation and economic growth. Therefore, it is crucial to highlight that using initiatives to increase demand would advance tourism while also boosting the economy.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Tourism and economic growth: A global study on Granger causality and wavelet coherence
    (researchgate.net, 2022-09-12) Wijesekara, C; Tittagalla, C; Ilukpotha, U; Jayathilaka, A; Jayathilaka, R; Jayasinghe, P
    This paper empirically investigates the relationship between tourism and economic growth by using a panel data cointegration test, Granger causality test and Wavelet coherence analysis at the global level. This analysis examines 105 nations utilising panel data from 2003 to 2020. The findings indicates that in most regions, tourism contributes significantly to economic growth and vice versa. Developing trade across most of the regions appears to be a major influencer in the study, as a bidirectional association exists between trade openness and economic growth. Additionally, all regions other than the American region showed a one-way association between gross capital formation and economic growth. Therefore, it is crucial to highlight that using initiatives to increase demand would advance tourism while also boosting the economy.